Flutter CEO Peter Jackson has declared World Cup 2026 will be the biggest betting event ever. Global wagers on the competition could top $50 billion, according to analysts, up from $35 billion at Qatar 2022. The majority of bettors will inevitably lose money, but a fortunate or savvy few may be able to end up in net profit at the end of the tournament.
I wanted to run an experiment during the tournament to see whether the two leading AI chatbots, Gemini and ChatGPT, can turn a profit and how a human (me) can compete with them.
Gemini Showed Early Promise
I recently ran an experiment over 10 days, and Gemini came out on top. It generated a healthy 32.7% return on 10 wagers. This is obviously a very small sample size, so we cannot yet draw any conclusions about its effectiveness. It found a winning strategy by predicting tennis matches, so let’s see if it can transfer that to the World Cup.
My original interest in seeing how effective AI could be at recommending bets was piqued by a small experiment run by Angus McIntyre at the Bristol Post. He used Gemini to recommend soccer picks, but it could only pick one winner out of five bets.
In my small experiment, ChatGPT lost 35.7% of its (imaginary) money by mainly recommending bets in international soccer friendly matches. It did, however, manage to predict a winner in the first World Cup match, Mexico, and under 3.5 goals at odds of -115.
Two other chatbots, QuillBot and DeepAI, included in the 10-day experiment have been excluded this time. The former malfunctioned, recommending picks for matches that did not exist, while the latter took the moral high ground and refused to offer betting tips.
It will therefore be a three-way contest that kicks off on day two. I gave both Gemini and ChatGPT the following prompt: recommend one bet for matches on day two at the World Cup.
For simplicity, I used the odds from DraftKings for each pick, although to consistently profit from sports betting, gamblers should analyze odds more closely and shop around, according to Professors Robert Scott and Mikhail Sher.
Gemini
Day 2 Pick: Canada to Defeat Bosnia and Herzegovina (-120) LOST -$10
Day 3 Pick: Switzerland to Win (vs. Qatar) & Brazil Over 1.5 Team Goals (vs. Morocco) (+129) LOST -$10
Day 4 Pick: Netherlands vs. Japan — Under 2.5 Total Goals (-130) LOST -$10
Day 5 Pick: Spain -1.5 Asian Handicap (vs. Cabo Verde) & Iran vs. New Zealand Under 2.5 Goals (-109) LOST -$10
Day 6 Pick: France to Win & Under 3.5 Match Goals (+110) LOST -$10
Day 7 Pick: Portugal to Defeat DR Congo & England to Defeat Croatia (+123) LOST -$10
Day 8 Pick: Czechia to Defeat South Africa (-120) LOST -$10
Day 9 Pick: Vinicius Jr. to Score Anytime vs. Haiti (-125) WON +$8
Day 10 Pick: Germany to beat Ivory Coast and Over 2.5 Goals (+100) WON +$10
Day 11 Pick: Uruguay to Win & Under 3.5 Match Goals vs. Cape Verde (-115) LOST -$10
Day 12 Pick: Argentina to Win & Under 3.5 Match Goals (+105) WON +$10.50
Day 13 Pick: England to beat Ghana and Both Teams To Score (+215) LOST -$10
Day 14 Pick: Morocco to beat Haiti & Under 3.5 Match Goals (+105) LOST -$10
Day 15 Pick: Japan to beat Sweden (-110) LOST -$10
Day 16 Pick: Senegal vs. Iraq — Both Teams To Score (+105) LOST -$10
Day 17 Pick: England to beat Panama to Zero (-130) WON +$7.69
Day 18 Pick: Canada to beat South Africa & Under 3.5 Goals (+115)
Running Profit/Loss: -$83.81
ChatGPT
Day 2 Pick: Canada to Defeat Bosnia and Herzegovina (-120) LOST -$10
Day 3 Pick: Scotland Draw No Bet vs. Haiti (-500) WON +$2
Day 4 Pick: Netherlands Draw No Bet vs. Japan (-195) NO BET $0
Day 5 Pick: Iran Draw No Bet vs. New Zealand (-285) NO BET $0
Day 6 Pick: France vs. Senegal Under 3.5 Goals (-270) LOST -$10
Day 7 Pick: Portugal to Win & Over 1.5 Goals (-200) LOST -$10
Day 8 Pick: Switzerland to Beat Bosnia (-180) WON +$5.56
Day 9 Pick: Morocco to beat Scotland (-135) WON +$7.41
Day 10 Pick: Netherlands to beat Sweden (-140) WON +$7.14
Day 11 Pick: Egypt to beat New Zealand (-165) WON +$6.06
Day 12 Pick: Norway to beat Senegal (+120) WON +$12
Day 13 Pick: Croatia to beat Panama & Under 3.5 Goals (+120) WON +$12
Day 14 Pick: Switzerland to beat Canada (+140) WON +$14
Day 15 Pick: Germany to Win & Under 3.5 Goals (+135) LOST -$10
Day 16 Pick: Senegal vs Iraq — Both Teams To Score: No (-135) WON +$7.41
Day 17 Pick: DR Congo to beat Uzbekistan (-160) WON +$6.25
Day 18 Pick: Canada to beat South Africa & Over 1.5 Goals (+100)
Running Profit/Loss: +$37.93
My Picks
Day 2 Pick: Christian Pulisic to score anytime vs. Paraguay (+245) LOST -$10
Day 3 Pick: Lawrence Shankland to score anytime vs. Haiti (+130) LOST -$10
Day 4 Pick: Ivory Coast to beat Ecuador (+225) WON +$22.50
Day 5 Pick: Saudi Arabia or Tie vs. Uruguay (+165) WON +$16.50
Day 6 Pick: Norway Win To Zero vs. Iraq (-170) LOST -$10
Day 7 Pick: England to draw with Croatia (+270) LOST -$10
Day 8 Pick: Mexico to beat South Korea (+105) WON +$10.50
Day 9 Pick: Turkey vs. Paraguay – Over 2.5 Goals (+105) LOST -$10
Day 10 Pick: Japan Win To Zero vs. Tunisia (+120) WON +$12
Day 11 Pick: Egypt Win To Zero vs. New Zealand (+135) LOST -$10
Day 12 Pick: Norway vs. Senegal – Over 3.5 Goals (+210) WON +$21
Day 13 Pick: Colombia vs. DR Congo – Both Teams To Score (+125) LOST -$10
Day 14 Pick: South Korea to beat South Africa and Under 3.5 Goals (+120) LOST -$10
Day 15 Pick: Paraguay to beat Australia (+185) LOST -$10
Day 16 Pick: Cape Verde vs. Saudi Arabia – Over 2.5 Goals (+115) LOST -$10
Day 17 Pick: Croatia to Draw With Ghana (+220) LOST -$10
Day 18 Pick: Half-Time/Full-Time: Canada/Canada (+150)
Running Profit/Loss: -$27.50
I will add the results and new picks each day of the tournament, so check back to keep up to date with the progress.
