Turkiye and the USA meet in the World Cup on Thursday. Kickoff from SoFi Stadium in Inglewood, California, is set for 10 p.m. ET on FOX. We’ve got you covered here with odds, picks, and best bets.
The Americans have already won Group D, and Turkiye has been eliminated. Paraguay and Australia also have a chance to advance from Group D.
Check out Polymarket’s odds on Turkey vs. USA:
| Outcome | Prediction Odds | American Odds |
| Turkiye | 25% | +300 |
| USA | 54% | -117 |
| Draw | 23% | +335 |
| USA to win by 1.5 goals | 32% | +213 |
| Over 2.5 goals scored | 59% | -144 |
Best Bet Turkiye vs. USA: OVER 2.5 Goals (-144)
We provided Polymarket’s odds because the prediction market provides better odds on the OVER than DraftKings, which offered -165 at the time of publication. It’s always critical to shop for the best odds, regardless of the platform.
The Americans opened the tournament by scoring the most goals ever in a World Cup game. Folarin Balogun scored a pair of goals in the 4-1 win over Paraguay. The US side then dispatched Australia, 2-0, to clinch Group D and advance to the knockout stage.
There are two ways to view tonight’s match against Turkey. Will the US rest on its laurels after winning Group D, or keep its collective foot on the pedal to secure its first-ever nine-point showing in group play?
We’re banking on the latter. It’ll be vital for manager Mauricio Pochettino‘s side to maintain its momentum heading into the knockout round. While US star Christian Pulisic is reportedly fit enough to play tonight, “Captain America” could see limited minutes as he recovers from a calf injury, if he hits the pitch at all.
The good news for the Americans is that they have other dynamic players who can find the back of the net. Led by striker Balogun, the US has also received goals from Gio Reyna and Alex Freeman in the tournament. Weston McKennie is also a capable scorer from the midfield position.
Despite its early exit, expect Turkiye to respond tonight for manager Vincenzo Montella, who said that he won’t resign after tonight’s match. Montella led Turkiye back to the World Cup after a 24-year absence. Look for a spirited effort tonight from both teams.
Pick: USA 2, Turkey 1
Best Player Prop for Turkey vs. USA
Folarin Balogun OVER 0.5 Goals (+257 odds, 28% implied probability at Polymarket)
It’s worth repeating: Check the odds at prediction markets, including Polymarket and Kalshi. Both were offering a 28-cent price on Balogun to score. That translates to +257 odds. DraftKings was dealing +135 odds for comparison. You can nearly double your winnings on this bet if Balogun comes through. Why leave that money on the table?
After scoring those two goals in the opener, Balogun went scoreless, but did have two shots against Australia. Considering Turkiye has allowed 10 shots on goal, Balogun should have more opportunities tonight.
