Kalshi has stopped offering mention markets for sports, but you can still get action on what US President Donald Trump or a CEO will say on any given day.
Given that prediction markets are mandated not to offer markets that are “readily susceptible to manipulation,” why stop there? Human nature being what it is, temptation will get the best of many folks when there’s a quick buck to be made.
Trump’s own teleprompter operator reportedly made more than $100,000 on Kalshi by “betting” on which words the president would utter. Gabriel Perez, who bet on at least a dozen of Trump’s speeches, no longer works for the federal government.
Mention Markets ‘Potentially Very Easy to Manipulate’
Kalshi is still offering markets on what people will say during political events, earnings calls, and live TV newscasts.
It’s curious that Kalshi only removed mention markets for sports in the wake of Trump’s teleprompter mishap. The decision coincides with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission reportedly probing the viability of mention markets.
A source told NPR that sports mention market markets have been taken down “until further notice” and it is unclear when or if they will return.
“These mention markets are not popular across the political aisle,” a second source said. “They are potentially very easy to manipulate, so the CFTC is taking a hard look at whether some of them make sense.”
As of publication, Kalshi offered the folllwing mention markets involving Trump. Trading volume is noted parenthetically.
- What will Trump say during his remarks in New York? ($844,488)
- What will Trump say this week? ($244,803)
- What will Trump say during his announcement? ($9,061)
- What will Trump say this month? ($251,465)
- What nicknames will Trump say before October? ($247,792)
- What companies will Trump say in August? ($135,720)
Will All Mention Markets Be Muted?
All of these markets are potentially vulnerable, something Coinbase CEO Brian Armstrong proved during an earnings call last year.
“I was a little distracted because I was tracking the prediction market about what Coinbase will say on their next earnings call,” Armstrong said. “I just want to add here the words Bitcoin, Ethereum, blockchain, staking, and Web3 — to make sure we get those in before the end of the call.”
Armstrong’s words were seemingly tongue-in-cheek, but they still exposed the inherent vulnerability of mention markets. A former Kalshi staffer told NPR that “employees have debated the usefulness” of mention markets, but co-founder Luana Lopes Lara was “especially championing them.”
With roughly 80% of Kalshi’s trading volume generated by sports, the company needs other markets to attract users, but preferably ones not susceptible to manipulation.
“There is growing concern among Kalshi’s lawyers and federal regulators that betting on certain kinds of speaking events runs against this principle, since the very nature of some markets attracts possible manipulators,” reads the NPR report.
In this case, silence might be golden.
