AAC Championship Odds, Prediction: Best Bet on North Texas to Win, Qualify for College Football Playoff

There’s a lot riding on tonight’s AAC Championship game featuring the North Texas Mean Green and Tulane Green Wave. In all likelihood, the winner will qualify for the College Football Playoff for the first time in conference history.

DraftKings is dealing Tulane as a 2.5-point home dog with a total of 66.5. As of this writing, 71% of the spread handle and 68% of the tickets laid the points with the visiting North Texas team. That’s the right play in our estimation.

Best Bet North Texas vs. Tulane: Against the Spread

North Texas -2.5 (-108 at DraftKings)

North Texas (11-1 SU, 10-2 ATS) is one of the most explosive teams in college football. If you go strictly by the numbers, it is the most explosive offensive team in the country. The Mean Green average 46.8 points per game. The next closest? Notre Dame at 42 ppg.

Both coaches are headed to bigger schools and greener pastures next year, with Tulane’s Jon Sumrall set to join Florida, and UNT’s Eric Morris heading to Oklahoma State.

UNT quarterback Drew Mestemaker leads the nation with 3,835 passing yards on the season. The walk-on QB has thrown for 29 TDs and just four interceptions.

Mestemaker’s top target is WR Wyatt Young, who leads the Mean Green with 1,203 yards and 10 TD catches. Tulane ranks near the bottom of all CFB teams in allowing 252 passing yards per game. This is the matchup to exploit tonight.

UNT also has a lethal weapon in RB Caleb Hawkins, who leads all FBS players with 26 total touchdowns.

On the other side of the ball, the Mean Green are susceptible to the run, yielding five yards per carry. That should open up some opportunities for Tulane QB Jake Retzlaff, who leads the Green Wave with 561 rushing yards and 14 TDs.

Retzlaff will need to protect the ball better after throwing two picks against Charlotte last week. In the final analysis, Tulane won’t be keep up with UNT’s dynamic offense and trio of top playmakers.

Lay this small number and enjoy the ride.

Best Player Prop Bet for North Texas

Drew Mestemaker OVER 319.5 Passing Yards (-114 at FanDuel)

We know what you’re thinking: that’s a ridiculously big number to cover. Everything is relative, though, when it comes to Mestemaker. The odds makers at FanDuel have set the line at his season average for yards per game.

Mestemaker threw for 366 yards and three TDs in last week’s blowout win over Temple. That followed a 469-yard, 3-TD effort against Rice. His highlight game of the season? Mestemaker amassed 608 (!) passing yards and four TDs in a 54-20 win over Charlotte.

Barring injury, he should comfortably surpass this number against a Tulane defense that ranks 113th nationally in pass defense.

Best Player Prop for Tulane

Jake Retzlaff to Score 2+ Touchdowns (+185 at FanDuel)

Retzlaff cashed this ticket with a pair of touchdowns in a 27-0 win over Charlotte last week. His running prowess was on full display during a 34-27 win over Duke, which is playing in the ACC Championship game against Virginia. Retzlaff hit paydirt four times against the Blue Devils.

Given UNT’s deficiencies against the run game, he’s worth a small toss to score twice at these odds.