Falcons vs. Bucs Odds, Prediction, Best Bets: Atlanta Covers, Top Player Props for Bijan & Baker

It’s an NFC South showdown tonight on Thursday Night Football, as the Tampa Bay Buccaneers host the Atlanta Falcons at Raymond James Stadium. Kickoff is set for 8:15 p.m. ET on Prime Video.

The Bucs (7-6 SU, 5-8 ATS) are tied with the Panthers at the top of the division standings. The Falcons (4-9 SU, 5-7-1 ATS) were eliminated from playoff contention after last week’s loss to the Seahawks. DraftKings is dealing the Bucs as a 5.5-point home favorite with a total of 43.5.

Bettors have gravitated toward the favorite, with 82% of spread handle and 85% of tickets on Tampa Bay at DraftKings.

Best Bet Falcons vs. Bucs: Against the Spread

Yes, the Falcons have been eliminated from the postseason, but Atlanta has lost a bunch of one-score games, including a 23-20 decision to Tampa Bay in the season opener.

The Bucs are also in a tailspin after losing three of their last four games. QB Baker Mayfield was playing at an MVP-caliber level early in the season, but he’s struggling as of late. He is expected to have No. 1 WR Mike Evans (collarbone) back in the lineup for the first time since Week 7 tonight.

If Emeka Egbuka, Chris Godwin, and Evans are all active, Tampa Bay would have its full arsenal of weapons available after Bucky Irving’s recent return.

Atlanta is fairly strong against the pass, though, yielding the ninth fewest yards in the NFL at 191.5 per game. Offensively, the Falcons will look to lean on do-it-all RB Bijan Robinson. He leads the league with 1,683 scrimmage yards. Robinson will likely see his pass-catching duties increase with WR Drake London (knee) already ruled out for tonight’s game.

Tampa Bay is particularly vulnerable when it comes to running backs beating them in the passing game. The Bucs give up 53.9 receiving yards to RBs per game, ranking them in the bottom half of the NFL in that metric.

With the public all over favored Tampa Bay, we’re going the other way.

Pick: Atlanta +5.5 (-108 at DraftKings)

Best Player Prop for Falcons

Bijan Robinson OVER 40.5 Receiving Yards (-113 at DraftKings)

Robinson averages 46.3 receiving yards per game. He’s got a plum assignment tonight against a Tampa Bay defense that has difficulty dealing with pass-catching RBs.

Robinson torched Tampa Bay in the first meeting, catching six of seven targets for 100 yards and a TD. He also eclipsed this total on one catch in that game with a 50-yard scoring strike for the first TD.

Best Player Prop for Bucs

Baker Mayfield OVER 18.5 Rushing Yards (-112 at FanDuel)

Mayfield is coming off a 42-yard rushing effort on six carries in last week’s 24-20 loss to the Saints.

He’s surpassed this total in seven of 13 games this season, but that number is skewed because a knee injury prevented him from running in some of those contests. With that injury behind him, Mayfield is free to roam, and we expect him to crush this total tonight.

Mayfield, who has covered this number in his last four games, averages 21.9 rushing yards per game this season.