The USA and Belgium meet tonight in the World Cup’s Round of 16 for the right to advance to the quarterfinals. Kickoff from Lumen Field in Seattle is set for 8 p.m. ET with live coverage on FOX.
The major storyline heading into tonight’s match is American striker Folarin Balogun’s reinstatement after receiving a red card against Bosnia & Herzegovina. FIFA’s decision came after US President Donald Trump lobbied on Balogun’s behalf.
Belgium has reportedly appealed that decision, but nothing has changed as of publication. Balogun leads the US side with three goals in the World Cup.
Kalshi is dealing the USA at -117 (54%) to advance and Belgium at +113 (47%). Here are additional odds offered by Kalshi:
| Outcome | Prediction Odds | American Odds |
| USA (moneyline in regulation) | 40% | +150 |
| Belgium (moneyline in regulation) | 34% | +194 |
| Draw | 29% | +245 |
| Over 2.5 goals scored | 58% | -138 |
| USA -1.5 goals | 20% | +400 |
Best Bet USA vs. Belgium: OVER 2.5 Goals (-138)
Belgium beat the US 2-1 in the 2014 World Cup. Four players from that team remain on the Belgium roster, including the dynamic duo of Romelu Lukaku and Kevin De Bruyne. Based on Kalshi’s odds, Lukaku (36%) is most likely to score for the Red Devils.
Both of these teams are capable offensively, especially if Balogun is indeed in the lineup. He is the betting favorite to find the back of the net at Kalshi (+150, 40%).
Belgium struggled in draws against Iran and Egypt before blowing out New Zealand, 5-1. The Red Devils needed a massive comeback after trailing Senegal 2-0 in the 85th minute of their knockout game. After pulling that game out, Belgium now has a chance to advance to the quarterfinals for the third time in its last four World Cups.
The US has averaged 2.5 goals per game during this World Cup, and that’s without any scoring contributions from Christian Pulisic. They benefited from Belgium’s comeback, avoiding the prospect of facing a faster, better defensive side in Senegal.
The Americans blew past Paraguay 4-1 in their opener, with Balogun scoring a pair of goals to lead the way. Balogun’s tactical speed and ability to find gaps in the back line will challenge Belgium. Additionally, it will generate more space for Pulisic, Antonee Robinson, Weston McKennie, and Malik Tillman.
Prediction: USA 2, Belgium 1
Best USA vs. Belgium Player Prop
Folarin Balogun Anytime Goal Scorer (+160 at FanDuel)
Balogun’s the focal point heading into the match, and he’ll be an American hero if he leads the US side to the quarterfinal round.
Balogun remains the only US player to score multiple goals in this tournament. He’s only played in three of the USA’s four games, sitting out against Turkiye after the US clinched Group D following wins against Paraguay and Australia.
Be sure to compare the goal scorer odds being offered at sportsbooks and prediction markets. We’re backing Balogun to score at FanDuel, which offered +160. Kalshi’s odds were slightly worse at +150.
