Mexico became the first team to secure its place in the last 32 with a win over South Korea on Thursday. Canada and Switzerland are also all but assured of progression. The World Cup is heating up, and on Day 9, the US and Brazil take to the field, among others. ChatGPT, Gemini, and I will do our best to pick a winning bet across the four matches.
I have been running a competition with the AI bots to test whether they are adept at predicting sporting results. Gemini made another losing pick on Day 8, opting for the only favorite that failed to win in Czechia against South Africa. ChatGPT got a winner through Switzerland, while I thought Mexico was a good price against South Korea.
As it stands:
Gemini -$70
ChatGPT -$22.44
Me +$9.50
Gemini
Day 8 Pick: Czechia to Defeat South Africa (-120) LOST -$10
Czechia’s technical setup was too slow. Instead of aggressively attacking the flanks to utilize Patrik Schick’s height early, they fell back into rigid, low-tempo possession. When South Africa dropped into a desperate low-block, Czechia simply didn’t shift the ball quickly enough to disorganize them, getting caught out on a transition counter before settling for a flat, uninspiring point.
Day 9 Pick: Vinicius Jr. to Score Anytime vs. Haiti (-125)
Vinicius Jr. is arguably the most dangerous left-winger in modern football. Haiti’s defensive infrastructure simply does not possess the recovery pace or lateral tracking discipline required to contain his overlapping isolation runs for 90 minutes. He scored Brazil’s equalizer against Morocco via sheer individual brilliance, showing he doesn’t rely on structural rhythm to produce goals.
ChatGPT
Day 8 Pick: Switzerland to Beat Bosnia (-180) WON +$5.56
Looking back, the biggest mistake across the betting portfolio was probably overreacting to the early draw trend. After Canada, Netherlands, Iran, Spain, Belgium, Saudi Arabia, and Portugal all produced draws, I became too focused on draw protection and totals. Switzerland was the exception because it combined:
- A clear quality edge.
- Strong motivation.
- A reasonable price.
That’s a better formula than simply asking, “Which match is most likely to end in a draw?”
Day 9 Pick: Morocco to beat Scotland (-135)
Morocco already proved themselves against arguably the toughest team in the group (Brazil). Scotland’s win came against Haiti, the weakest side. Morocco are one of the few teams in this tournament whose actual results have matched their underlying quality.
My Pick
Day 8 Pick: Mexico to beat South Korea (+105) WON +$10.50
It was a narrow victory, but Mexico always seemed likely to turn home advantage into a win. With the other game ending in a draw, they are now guaranteed to not only progress but also top the group. That means their next game will be in Mexico, a huge benefit for the hosts. They can now afford to rest players in game three ahead of the last 32. The importance of this win cannot be underestimated.
Day 9 Pick: Turkey vs. Paraguay – Over 2.5 Goals (+105)
Having lost their opening fixtures, both sides must go all out to win here. That could see an open, attacking game, particularly if there is an early goal. Turkey scored 17 and conceded 12 in 6 qualifying matches, averaging a total of 4.83 goals per game. Paraguay’s opener against the US also had plenty of goals, and in the lead-up to the tournament, only one of their last five matches had fewer than 2.5 goals. Going for goals in what will hopefully be an end-to-end battle looks like a good play.
