The US crypto exchange giant Coinbase’s second-quarter report made for predictably grim reading as Bitcoin prices continue to stagnate. But while crypto remains down in the dumps, the firm’s prediction markets are witnessing meteoric growth.
The firm said its prediction market revenues more than doubled in Q2, rising 106% on the first quarter.
Bitcoin, meanwhile, is down over 28% on January prices and has lost over half its worth in the past year.
Trading activity has slowed at major exchanges as crypto winter settles in. As such, away from the predictions markets, Coinbase’s Q2 was sluggish at best.
The firm posted a $359.5 million net loss on second-quarter revenue of $1.22 billion.
Most Wall Street analysts had predicted revenues of $1.29 billion for the crypto exchange giant.
Prediction Markets: Coinbase Eyes Expansion
Coinbase did not put a figure on its prediction market growth in its investor presentation.
Instead, it repeated the forecast that its prediction market arm, Coinbase Predictions, is set to accrue over $100 million in annualized revenue based on its half-year performance to date.
During a call with financial analysts, Chris Brendler, a Senior Research Analyst at Rosenblatt Securities, said that on the basis of data points in the rest of the Coinbase report, he believed the firm had made “around $30 million” from Coinbase Predictions in Q2.
“You’re getting into like the right neighborhood, even though we did not give you a revenue number with the data that we provided,” replied Alesia Haas, Coinbase’s Chief Financial Officer.
In its Q2 presentation materials, Coinbase confirmed that sports were its top category, noting that the NBA playoffs and the World Cup had contributed to growth.
Sports Dominates
Coinbase does not publish data on the total volumes of its prediction market trades. But the highest-volume markets on its platform mainly appear to be sports-related.
Contracts that mirror outright bets on sportsbook platforms appear to be the most popular, with customers trading over $102 million in contracts related to the 2026 NFL Super Bowl winner.
Users have also traded almost $80 million worth of contracts on the next baseball World Series winner, with almost $38 million on the next NBA champion.
College sports are also popular: Users have staked almost $18 million on the next NCAA football champion.
Also popular are the kind of contracts that have recently stoked the NBA’s ire: player trades.
Customers have traded almost $4.1 million in contracts on whether NBA star Steph Curry will move to a new team.
Several political markets have also seen big trades, with over $111 million riding on the outcome of the next US Presidential Election.
Binary contracts on Bitcoin and altcoin prices launched in mid-June.
These have so far attracted more modest figures, with the $59 million traded on BTC’s end of-year price the only major exception.
Coinbase, however, said the binary contracts had led to a 3x rise in daily traders and a 4x rise in daily revenue compared with its May daily average.
Armstrong: Upbeat on Prediction Markets
Brian Armstrong, Coinbase’s Co-Founder and CEO, also talked up Coinbase Predictions’ success.
“We’re seeing good adoption of things like prediction markets [and] perpetual futures,” he said during an ask-me-anything session.
In its report, Coinbase also teased forthcoming prediction market offerings, one of which appears to resemble the multi-leg bets offered by bookmakers.
Also known as parlays or accumulator bets, these let bookmakers’ customers multiply the odds on their wagers by adding extra legs.
For instance, a bettor may back Real Madrid striker Kylian Mbappé to finish La Liga’s top scorer and his team to win the 2026-2027 championship for enhanced odds.
Should either event fail, the bet would lose.
In its presentation, Coinbase mentioned a new “Combo” feature, which it described as “multiple predictions in a single trade.”
The firm also said it would release a “prosumer toolkit” that would provide customers with “deeper liquidity and engagement.”
