Bills vs. Falcons Odds, Prediction: Best Bets for Monday Night Football

NFL Week 6 comes to a close with a Monday Night Football doubleheader that starts with Bills vs. Falcons at 7:15 p.m. ET on ESPN.

Buffalo (4-1 SU, 2-3 ATS) is the +500 betting favorite to win Super Bowl 60 at BetMGM, but the Bills are coming off their first loss of the season against the Patriots. The Falcons (2-2 SU, 2-2 ATS), who are coming off a bye week, have been up and down this season.

The Bills opened as 5.5-point favorites at BetMGM, but the line has been bet down to Buffalo -4 with a total of 50. Buffalo has commanded 81% of spread tickets and 58% of the handle at BetMGM. But remember, we recommended the Jaguars as a home dog over the favored Chiefs on MNF last week, and cashed that ticket when Jacksonville won outright, 31-28.

Best MNF Bet Against the Spread

Falcons +4 (-115)

The bye week allowed Atlanta to get healthy, and top CB A.J. Terrell (hamstring) is expected to return tonight. That bodes well with QB Josh Allen and company coming to town as the NFL’s highest scoring team at 30.6 points per game.

On the other side of the ball, the Bills struggle to stop the run, ranking 30th in the league, giving up 145.6 yards per game. That’s a problem when facing off against Atlanta RB Bijan Robinson. Robinson leads the NFL with 146 scrimmage yards per game. He’s also a bona fide threat to catch the ball out of the backfield with a team-high 270 receiving yards.

Buffalo is 0-3 ATS in its last three games. Make it four after tonight, as we like the Falcons +4 on the spread. Atlanta should expose Buffalo’s run defense tonight and keep things tight.

Best MNF Player Prop for Falcons

Bijan Robinson OVER 30.5 Receiving Yards (-115)

Robinson has been Atlanta’s top receiving threat to date. Check out his gaudy stats through the first four games:

• 6 catches, 100 receiving yards vs. Buccaneers
• 3 catches, 25 receiving yards vs. Vikings
• 5 catches, 39 receiving yards vs. Panthers
• 4 catches for 106 receiving yards vs. Commanders

99% of BetMGM bettors took the OVER on Robinson’s receiving prop, but it’s only juiced to -115. Also consider taking Robinson’s longest reception OVER 13.5 yards (-125 at DraftKings). The former Texas star has catches of 50,15,25, and 69 in his first four games, respectively.

Best MNF Player Prop for Bills

Josh Allen OVER 33.5 Rushing Yards (-112)

This price was available at FanDuel at the time of publication. Allen leads all NFL quarterbacks with 212 rushing yards on the season. Last week, Allen had nine carries for 53 rushing yards in the loss to New England.

Allen is averaging 42.4 rushing yards per game, and Atlanta’s defense is a top-10 team when it comes to generating pressure on the QB. When the pocket breaks down, Allen loves to use his legs for big gains. This prop bet could be cashed on a single dash. Allen ripped off a 40-yard run in a win over the Jets back in Week 2.

He’ll have several opportunities to scamper tonight, and in our estimation, this number is on the low end of his potential range. DraftKings offers alternative rushing total odds, and they’re worth checking out if you believe Allen will run wild under the MNF lights. We wouldn’t blame you for playing Allen to go OVER 40 rushing yards at +119 or 50 at +197.