Alabama vs. Oklahoma Odds & Picks: Best Bets for Low-Scoring CFP First Round Game

The Alabama Crimson Tide face the Oklahoma Sooners tonight in the opening game of the College Football Playoff. Kickoff is set for 8 p.m. ET on ABC.

Alabama (10-3 SU, 8-4-1 ATS) lost to Oklahoma (10-2 SU, 6-5-1 ATS) during the regular season. The 23-21 defeat came at Alabama, which now travels to Norman, Oklahoma, for tonight’s CFP game.

DraftKings is dealing the Sooners as a slight 1.5-point favorite with a total of 40.5. As of publication, 57% of the spread handle is on Alabama, but 51% of tickets are on Oklahoma.

Best Bet Alabama vs. Oklahoma: UNDER 40.5 (-105 at DraftKings)

Points should be at a premium tonight. The Sooners boast a ferocious defense that ranks seventh nationally, allowing just 13.9 points per game. Oklahoma is also the fifth stingiest rushing defense, yielding just 81.4 yards per game and only six TDs on the season.

All that said, the offense has struggled recently under QB John Mateer. The Sooners averaged just 19 ppg over the last three games in wins over Alabama, Missouri, and LSU. Alabama’s top-10 passing defense held Mateer to 138 passing yards and no TDs in the first meeting. Mateer did contribute to the win with a rushing TD.

Alabama quarterback Ty Simpson has struggled of late, too, with just five TD passes and four interceptions in the last four games. He did throw for 326 yards and a touchdown in the loss to Oklahoma, but was also picked off once.

Given Oklahoma’s strength against the run, Simpson needs to have success through the air. WR Germie Bernard is a big-time threat for ‘Bama, with a team-high 57 catches for 762 yards and seven touchdowns. Ryan Williams is also among the nation’s best receivers, but his sophomore campaign has paled compared to his freshman season. Still, his 42-631-4 stat line commands coverage attention.

Don’t expect either team’s rushing attack to thrive tonight. Alabama (80 yards) and Oklahoma (74) failed to generate any momentum on the ground last month. With Mateer and Simpson’s recent struggles, it’s hard to see this game going OVER the total.

Pick: UNDER 40.5

Best Player Prop for Alabama

RB Jam Miller UNDER 38.5 Rushing Yards (-114 at FanDuel)

This is more of a play on the Oklahoma defense than it is Jam Miller. The Sooners are nearly impossible to run against. Exhibit A: Miller was held to just 27 yards on nine carries in the first game.

In four of his last five games against Power Four programs, Miller has failed to surpass this number. Here are the three games that led up to Oklahoma:

• 12 carries, 15 yards vs. Tennessee
• 10 carries, 26 yards vs. South Carolina
• 8 carries, 13 yards vs. LSU

Given that track record, the UNDER is the smart play tonight.

Best Player Prop for Oklahoma

QB John Mateer UNDER 32.5 Rushing Yards (-114 at FanDuel)

Mateer finished with 26 rushing yards in the first game against ‘Bama — on 10 carries. He’ll likely be involved again tonight, but expect Alabama’s pressure to result in at least two sacks, which it produced last month, and potentially more.

Those yards count against a QB’s rushing yards in college football, and that presents a big hurdle for Mateer to climb.