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Kris Johnson is a Charlotte-based deputy editor. He joined CasinoBeats in July 2025 and oversees the daily news flow of editing and publishing. Kris also reports on all aspects of the gambling industry with a...
Read Full BioWith the NFL Playoffs beginning this weekend, the Denver Broncos are getting a lot of love at BetMGM Sportsbook.
The Sean Payton-led Broncos, who captured the AFC’s top seed with a record of 14-3, will enjoy a bye week before facing the winner of Monday’s final Wildcard game between the Texans and Steelers.
There have already been some sizable bets on the Broncos at BetMGM, with three separate wagers of $100K, $75K, and $50K on Denver to win the AFC Championship at +350 odds. Let’s take a look at the potential path for the Broncos to reach Super Bowl 60, and help determine best bets on this year’s AFC champion.
AFC Championship Odds at BetMGM
The Broncos represent BetMGM’s biggest liability. Here’s a look at the sportsbook’s AFC Championship odds:
- Broncos +225
- Patriots +400
- Bills +500
- Texans +550
- Jaguars +600
- Chargers +1300
- Steelers +1800
After starting the season 1-2, Denver reeled off 13 wins in its last 14 games. We’re not as bullish on the Broncos to win the AFC compared to the Rams emerging as the NFC’s representative in Super Bowl 60.
Fading Favored Broncos in Favor of…
Payton guided the Saints to a Super Bowl title back in 2010, but his quarterback was future Hall of Famer Drew Brees. Denver QB Bo Nix has been consistently inconsistent this season.
Nix finished the regular season with a 58.5 QBR, ranking mid-pack at No. 14 in ESPN’s ratings of all NFL quarterbacks. He threw for less than 200 yards in Denver’s last two games.
Prior to that, Nix threw for 352 yards, but it came in a 34-20 home loss to Jacksonville, which looms as a potential opponent in the AFC Championship Game. Jacksonville QB Trevor Lawrence, who accounted for four TDs in that game, is playing the best football of his career at the right time of year.
The loss of top RB J.K. Dobbins to a season-ending foot injury doesn’t help Denver’s cause, either. If Denver is to advance to the conference title game, its defense will be the primary driver. The Broncos boast an elite D-unit that ranks second in total defense, allowing 278.2 yards per game. Denver also surrendered the fewest TDs (29) during the regular season.
The problem comes early with Denver’s likely matchup with Houston in the AFC Divisional round. The Texans rank first in total defense (277.2 ypg) and second in scoring defense (17.4 ppg).
That’s another defensive tussle in the making, and one that could go either way. Denver beat Houston, 18-15, in the regular season on a last-second FG by Will Lutz. Notably, Houston QB CJ Stroud exited that game with a concussion in the first quarter, which arguably made the difference.
There’s better value on the AFC odds board than backing the favored Broncos, who’ve made a habit of winning ugly games. Two of their three losses came to teams in the AFC playoff bracket: the Jaguars and the Chargers.
No. 2 seed New England and MVP candidate Drake Maye also potentially await in the AFC Championship Game. Here are three better value-based bets to make on this year’s AFC champion:
- Patriots +400 (Drake Maye > Nix)
- Bills +500 (Josh Allen > Nix)
- Jaguars +600 (Trevor Lawrence > Nix)
Good luck and enjoy the NFL Playoffs regardless of who you bet.
