Match-Fixing Expert Declan Hill Reacts to NCAA Betting Scandal: ‘I Have Seen This Hundreds of Times’

After federal prosecutors unsealed a sweeping NCAA point-shaving indictment yesterday, questions quickly followed about whether the case represents an isolated incident or something more systemic in a sports world already on edge after repeated betting scandals. 

For some sports fans, the allegations reinforced a long-held cynicism about sports: games are fixed and serve as entertainment more than real competition. For others, the indictment seemed to confirm the opposite: corruption exists at the margins but only affects a small fraction of games. 

For match-fixing expert Declan Hill, the answer is clear: the case reads like a familiar international template, not an outlier, but a pattern that has been repeated countless times across global sports. 

“This is a carbon copy match-fixing scandal,” Hill said. “I have seen this hundreds of times around the world.”

CasinoBeats spoke with Hill, an associate professor at the University of New Haven and longtime investigator of sports corruption, who has seen similar schemes play out across multiple sports and countries. Hill explained that the alleged structure described in the indictment is similar to match-fixing models he has studied across countries in Europe, Africa, and Asia. These are networks that recruit players, pay bribes, and manipulate narrow outcomes that can be exploited through betting markets. 

Hill focused less on specific teams or bets and more on the mechanics of the alleged scheme itself, the kind of subtle, repeatable manipulation he says sophisticated fixers use to make a profit without drawing immediate attention to themselves. 

According to the indictment, prosecutors allege the scheme involved recruiting and bribing players to manipulate portions of NCAA men’s basketball games. They often did this by point-shaving, then placing wagers at legal sportsbooks. The alleged operation began overseas in the China Basketball Association and later moved into college basketball in the United States. 

Prosecutors allege the fixers used “straw” or “proxy” bettors and cash bribe payments to carry out the scheme. Hill said the broader gambling market behind cases like this is globalized rather than uniquely American.

“Match-fixing and international sports corruption linked to the gambling market is globalized,” he said. “There’s no such thing anymore as the ‘American gambling market.’ It is a globalized market.”

Prosecutors say the alleged scheme took advantage of how widespread legal sports betting has become, writing that “because of the proliferation of legalized sports betting, the fixers could use numerous sportsbooks to place their bets on these games and conceal the scheme from authorities.”

Hill echoed that concern, saying that sophisticated fixers can operate “underneath the algorithm,” making schemes harder to detect.

“It’s yet another scandal,” he said. “It’s the tip of the iceberg. There will be more scandals coming down.”

Why Hill Says College Hoops is a Soft Target

While Hill said the alleged tactics used in the NCAA scheme are familiar, he also explained that college basketball is especially vulnerable because many players earn so little. 

“The NCAA has always been more at risk than the other sports leagues in America, because many of the players simply do not get paid,” he said.

He explained that NIL compensation has changed the financial picture for some student-athletes, but not in a way that eliminates vulnerability across the player pool.

“With name, image, and likeness, some of the players are beginning to get paid,” he said. “They’re very good players, but they’re not getting all that much money, and many of them are never going to be able to make it into the NBA.”

Prosecutors make a similar argument in the indictment, alleging the fixers targeted athletes, “for whom the bribe payments would meaningfully supplement or exceed legitimate NIL opportunities.”

The indictment further states that fixers offered bribes, “usually ranging from $10,000 to $30,000 per game,” and that many players accepted them. 

Hill also talked about a vulnerability he believes many sports organizations don’t want to confront directly: gambling addiction among athletes.

“There is a huge unacknowledged problem of gambling addiction among their athletes, among their coaches, among team and league officials and owners,” he said. “As soon as you have an addiction problem, the gates are open to this kind of scandal.”

Warning on Credibility & Regulation

During our conversation, Hill made it clear that his critique is not an argument against legal sports betting. He said that legal betting is now firmly embedded in U.S. sports. The problem is that governance and oversight haven’t kept pace with the market’s rapid growth. 

“I believe in a legalized sports gambling market, I support legalized gambling,” he said. “I don’t believe in hypocrisy. I don’t believe in widespread societal hypocrisy, which is what we had when gambling was illegal.”

But he argued that legalization alone does not mean sports gambling is being regulated in a way that protects the integrity of games.

“I do think that we should be regulating sports gambling properly, and we’re not,” Hill said. “We really have to have that discussion.”

Hill’s broader critique also touches on the relationship between leagues and betting expansion, framing the current case as part of a longer integrity stress test for American sports.

“This is one more scandal in a long litany of scandals hitting American sports,” Hill said. “Sports leagues have gotten into bed with the devil. They’re dancing with the devil. They’ve been seduced by the devil, and they’re really at risk of losing credibility.”

And the risks to sports go far beyond whether investigators ultimately prove a particular game was manipulated. 

“It’s not whether there is actually a scandal, whether the game is actually corrupted or fixed,” he said. “It’s whether enough fans think it’s fixed or start to doubt the game. That’s where the credibility of sports goes, and sports leagues in America are in deep danger.”

Integrity Monitors ‘Catch the Stupid Fixes’

In the indictment, prosecutors describe a conspiracy that allegedly relied on coordinated betting across multiple sportsbooks, with fixers recruiting and bribing players to manipulate portions of games. 

Hill gave the investigators credit, saying, ”Congratulations to the investigators. They’ve done a really, seemingly good job.” But he also cautioned against treating the arrests as proof that integrity safeguards are reliably catching misconduct before it spreads.

“They’re still missing most of the stuff,” he said. “Those monitoring the betting patterns help some of the time, but they really only catch the stupid fixes.”

Hill said sophisticated networks tend to avoid outcomes that produce dramatic market movement. Instead, they focus on marginal edges that can be exploited repeatedly over time.

“It depends on how sophisticated the fixers are,” he said. “The really good ones go long term. They go underneath the algorithm. They take the profits. They’ll fix the underdog, they’re not going to fix a favorite, because if you fix a favorite, the odds go crazy.”