Analyst: Legal Betting on Super Bowl 60 Expected to Drop 2% to $1.5 Billion

Citizens Equity Research analyst Jordan Bender issued a report today that “forecasts legal Super Bowl betting of $1.5 billion this year, a 2% year-over-year decline.”

Even with Missouri offering legal Super Bowl betting for the first time, Bender notes that last year’s game between the Eagles and Chiefs generated a significant hold for operators. That could prove tough to match for Super Bowl 60.

“The comp will be tough across the broader industry with gaming operators holding around 17% last year, well above a one standard deviation move,” Bender said.

Bender added that operators’ “promotional spending as a percentage of Super Bowl handle is likely to decline” year over year, with Missouri being the only state to come on board.

Super Bowl 60 Lacks Relative Sizzle

A confluence of factors helped make last year’s Big Game a phenomenon. The highly publicized relationship between Taylor Swift and Travis Kelce “compelled casual fans and recreational bettors to get involved.”

Kansas City head coach Andy Reid was also facing his former team. QB Patrick Mahomes always moves the meter in big games, and the Chiefs were in dynasty mode after winning three Super Bowls in five seasons.

From a purely football perspective, the Seahawks and Patriots should offer an attractive product, but Bender notes those other issues “could weigh on handle for what is the most wagered on sporting event in the US.”

Operators are still likely to see a Super Bowl-fueled surge in app downloads and customer acquisition.

“Players acquired during this period are often not the highest quality, but the 523K downloads on Super Bowl Sunday last year represented 45% more than any other day during 2025,” Bender said.

Prediction markets could also cut into the traditional OSB handle. This is the first Super Bowl with deep NFL trading (i.e. betting) menus available on multiple platforms, including Kalshi and Robinhood.

“Prediction markets, already seeing impressive volume on the game, are creating some pressure in the legal market,” Bender said. “Overall, the tough hold comp and handle down year-over-year imply ‘in line’ gaming margins could result in gaming revenue down.”

Super Bowl Betting Data Supports Coin-Flip Reality of Outcomes

CasinoBeats recently examined the outcome of every Super Bowl to see how favorites and underdogs have fared through the years.

Underdogs, which have cashed in five straight games and won four outright, enjoy the slightest of edges at 29-28-2 in the 59 Super Bowls played to date. The OVER/UNDER is dead even at 29-29, with no total being posted for Super Bowl 1.

The Eagles defeated the Chiefs, 40-22, as a slight underdog last year. Seattle is currently favored by 4.5 points over New England with a total of 45.5 at DraftKings.