Adam Roarty Editor
Adam Roarty is a journalist covering sports betting, regulation, and industry innovation for CasinoBeats. His coverage includes tax increases in the UK, covering breaking stories in the ever-evolving landscape of US betting such as the...
Read Full BioThe rise of prediction markets has opened the door for betting on anything. The latest gamble from users is that the US government will confirm the existence of aliens by 2027.
On Friday, there were two large trades on the Kalshi market. The first was for around $60,000, which increased the likelihood to 16.7% from 13.9%.
A few hours later, $15,000 was wagered that the government would reveal extraterrestrial life by next year. The market now puts the likelihood back at 15%.
For those unfamiliar with prediction markets, the percentage chance functions like odds. The percentage is calculated based on a $1 contract between users. Those who believe in little green men can get $1 for every 15 cents risked, while non-believers have to put up $1 to earn $0.15.
The $60,000 traded on Friday could go to one user, or other users could have to pay out $400,000 if the government does indeed confirm the existence of aliens.
In total, over $1.6 million has now been traded on the market, which opened at the start of December. Shortly after the market opened, the chances spiked to as high as 25.7%, meaning some users have essentially backed the existence of aliens at odds of around +290.
‘Disclosure Day’ a Reality?
Users who predict that the government will reveal the existence of aliens may have been influenced by Steven Spielberg. The trailer for Spielberg’s new movie Disclosure Day was shown during the Super Bowl, when Kalshi coincidentally saw record trading volumes.
The veteran filmmaker gave an interview this week where he described it as not “the possibility, but the guarantee, that there is life off this planet.”
He adds, “People’s questions about what is not only going on in our skies, but what is going on in our worlds, in our realities, has reached a critical mass.”
Trump Influenced By Market?
Prediction markets have come under increased legal scrutiny, mainly for offering sports contracts, which states protest circumvent gambling laws. There have also been questions about some of the more outlandish markets and how easily they can be manipulated.
There have been numerous instances of users seemingly knowing the outcomes of events before they were publicly revealed. Spikes in trading on military actions, Google searches, and mention markets – what someone will say in a speech or earnings call – have attracted suspicions.
The Coalition for Prediction Markets insists that its members, which include Kalshi, have strict rules against insider trading. However, there has already been one example of President Donald Trump seemingly manipulating the result of a contract. A Kalshi user boasted that he had made the President say certain words in a speech to directly influence a market.
Another Kalshi user has said Trump could easily reveal the existence of aliens for a payday. The user stated, “The trump administration has already shown itself to be more than willing to intentionally do things in public press conferences to make money on prediction markets.
“What could be juicier for them? We’re just paying them to say “aliens exist”. How much do we have to offer before they just do it & take the money?”
The volume of trades on the market for now may not be enough to encourage the government to reveal that aliens exist just to satisfy the Kalshi market, but it raises questions about the kinds of markets that should be tradable.
