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Adam Roarty is a journalist covering sports betting, regulation, and industry innovation for CasinoBeats. His coverage includes tax increases in the UK, covering breaking stories in the ever-evolving landscape of US betting such as the...
Read Full BioMarkets on the existence of aliens on prediction market platforms Kalshi and Polymarket saw a surge in trading volume after President Donald Trump said he is preparing to release files.
Ten days ago, CasinoBeats highlighted unusually large trades on the market: “Will the U.S. confirm that aliens exist before 2027?” at Kalshi.
At that time, $1.6 million had been traded. There has now been almost $5 million.
In the last 24 hours alone, over $1 million was traded, leading to the chances jumping from 17% to as high as 28%. The daily trading volume since the start of the year shows low levels throughout January, followed by increases in February and a massive spike yesterday.
The spike came after Trump posted on Truth Social that he will direct US agencies, including the Defense Department, to “begin the process of identifying and releasing” government files on aliens and extraterrestrial life.
There is no clear indication that the process will lead to official confirmation of aliens existing by the end of the year. Kalshi’s market says it will settle as yes, “If the President, any member of the Cabinet, any member of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, or any US federal agency definitively states that extraterrestrial life or technology exists before Jan 1, 2027.”
A related market at Polymarket has similar trading volumes. The market currently gives a 17% chance that the US will reveal aliens exist by the end of the year, up from 9% last week.
The rules similarly state, “This market will resolve to ‘Yes’ if the President of the United States, any member of the Cabinet of the United States, any member of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, or any US federal agency definitively states that extraterrestrial life or technology exists by December 31, 2026.”
Obama Says Aliens are Real
Trump’s post comes in the wake of former President Barack Obama declaring that aliens are real on a podcast last week. Obama told Brian Tyler Cohen, “They’re real, but I haven’t seen them.”
He went on to add that they are not being kept in any secret location, such as Area 51, to his knowledge, adding, “Unless there’s this enormous conspiracy and they hid it from the President of the United States.”
Trump said Obama should not be commenting on the matter, telling reporters aboard Air Force One, “He gave classified information, he’s not supposed to be doing that.”
The reporter then attempted to confirm the existence with Trump, but he declined to confirm or deny, stating, “I don’t know if they’re real or not.” He then added, “I don’t have an opinion on it, I never talk about it.”
Not long after, however, he was posting about it on his social media platform.
