New details have emerged in the case against Israeli military personnel using insider information to trade on war-related markets at Polymarket.
Israel announced the indictment of two individuals last month, including a military reservist and a civilian. The case was initially subject to a court-issued gag order, but that was partially lifted on Thursday evening following a petition from several media outlets.
The two men are alleged to have wagered on the timing of Israel’s military strikes against Iran in June 2025.
According to the indictment, the reservist was briefed on the operation in a confidential meeting a day before it began on June 13, then notified his friend about the offensive. His friend then used this information to place wagers at Polymarket.
The officer allegedly sent a follow-up message on WhatsApp right before the attack, stating, “It’s starting.”
Alleged Polymarket Account Flagged Online
The defendants’ names remain unreleased, but the potential Polymarket account has been flagged online.
In January, PredictFolio, a Polymarket-supported trading tracker, posted on X that an account profiting on the strikes last year had begun trading again.
The account has since been renamed to rundeep. The user allegedly changed the account name out of fear of being caught.
PredictFolio claimed that this week’s revelations point to this account as the one behind the alleged insider trading.
The figures match up. According to the Times of Israel, the two men made $162,663 from the bet, which they agreed to split evenly. This was the return of the most profitable wager on rundeep’s account.
Prosecutors say the information on when the strikes would take place was passed on to five additional friends.
The officer is also accused of passing on additional information regarding an Israeli strike in Yemen, enabling the friend to place another successful bet worth about $5,000. This does not appear on rundeep’s trading history, but it is possible that other accounts were also being used.
Other Accounts Flagged as Suspicious
The rundeep account only made one losing wager. The user predicted the US would strike Iran in June last year, resulting in a loss of almost $3,000.
Other users made huge profits wagering on the US strike last month. Israel announced that it was investigating suspicions of insider trading involving six accounts that generated $1.2 million.
Sen. Chris Murphy accused the President of being complicit, posting on X, “People around Trump are profiting off war and death.”
It is unclear if the accounts in question are in any way connected to Trump or Israeli military personnel. By this time, the reservist had already been indicted, so he is unlikely to be implicated in this scandal.
US Lawmakers Propose Banning Select Markets
Murphy has since introduced the BETS OFF Act, which aims to prohibit wagers on government actions, terrorism, war, assassination, and other events where a person either knows the outcome in advance or has complete control over it.
When introducing the legislation, he again repeated accusations that Trump was involved.
The bill would change little compared to current laws and market rules. The Commodity Exchange Act (CEA) already prohibits US-licensed companies from offering markets on war or death. The markets appeared on Polymarket’s international platform, which is not subject to US law.
In addition, insiders are already banned from trading on markets, as the indictment against the military personnel in Israel proves. Despite this, a similar bill has been filed this week.
The STOP Corrupt Bets Act would restrict prediction market contracts tied to elections, military operations, and government actions.
