The No. 3 Michigan State Spartans meet the No. 2 UConn Huskies tonight in the NCAA Tournament’s Sweet 16. Tip-off is scheduled for 9:45 ET on CBS.
This episode of March Madness is appointment viewing at its best, with legendary coaches Tom Izzo and Danny Hurley fighting to get their teams into the Elite 8.
DraftKings is dealing UConn as a 2.5-point favorite with a total of 136.5 as of publication. There was significant two-way action at -1.5, with 51% of spread handle and 52% of tickets on UConn before the line moved.
Best Bet Michigan State vs. UConn: Against the Spread
Spartans +2.5 (-118)
Michigan State (31-5) is paced offensively by point guard Jeremy Fears, who leads the nation in assists with 9.4 apg. His prowess as a master distributor was on full display in MSU’s last game against Louisville. Fears recorded an eye-popping 16 assists in the 77-69 win.
With Fears dealing offensively, Michigan State also owns the advantage on defense. Nobody is better in the nation when it comes to limiting offensive rebounds than Sparty. They’ll need to be at their usual best tonight.
UConn’s Tarris Reed (14.2 ppg, 8.9 rpg) and Alex Karaban (13.3 ppg, 5.2 rpg) form one of the country’s best front courts. Fun fact: Reed hauled down 27 rebounds in the opening win against Furman, and followed with 13 boards in the second-round victory over UCLA.
UConn (27-7) has a propensity to foul often, and that could be the difference in a matchup featuring fairly even opponents. The Huskies rank No. 239 nationally in committing 18 fouls per game.
These two teams played an exhibition game in October, and Fears made 10-of-13 attempts from the charity stripe. Collectively, MSU went to the free-throw line 44 times, cashing in 29 times.
Michigan State makes 76.5% of its free throws, giving Sparty a top-40 ranking and a definite advantage against foul-prone UConn tonight.
Pick: Michigan State +2.5
Best Player Prop for Michigan State Spartans
Coen Carr OVER 16.5 Points & Rebounds (-104 at FanDuel)
Simply put, Coen Carr has been electrifying during March Madness.
Carr put up a double-double last time out against Louisville, finishing with 21 points and 10 rebounds. He also eclipsed this number comfortably with 17 points and four rebounds in the opener against North Dakota State.
Take one of the country’s top dunkers to go big again tonight.
Best Player Prop for UConn Huskies
Alex Karaban OVER 12.5 Points (-125 at FanDuel)
This line is off and waiting to be exploited.
Karaban scored 22 points in the opening win over Furman and followed that up with 27 against UCLA. Notably, he attempted 16 shots in each of those games. The only other time he attempted more (18) came in an overtime win against Providence during the regular season.
Nobody on UConn’s roster comes close to playing as many minutes as Karaban (33.9 mpg), either. Our preferred play is on Karaban to have at least 15 points at DraftKings, which is offering +125 odds on that prop.
