March Madness continues tonight with four more Sweet 16 games, starting with No. 5 St. John’s vs. No. 1 Duke. Tip-off is set for 7:10 p.m. ET on CBS.
DraftKings is dealing Duke as a 6.5-point favorite with a total of 140.5 as of publication. 64% of spread handle and 64% of tickets are on St. John’s. The Red Storm’s a popular underdog play, but the Blue Devils have the No. 1 defense in the country per KenPom.
We cashed a nice ticket last night by parlaying the OVER for Texas vs. Purdue with Fletcher Loyer scoring at least 15 points.
Best Bet St. John’s vs. Duke: Against the Spread
Blue Devils -6.5 (-108)
Duke’s defense is dominant. The Blue Devils found another gear in the second half of their game against TCU in the round of 32, limiting the Horned Frogs to just 24 points.
Duke advanced to the Sweet 16 without the services of starting point guard Caleb Foster (foot), but head coach Jon Scheyer said he may return to the lineup tonight.
Center Patrick Ngongba II returned from his own foot issues against TCU, and his presence will be key tonight in stopping Zuby Ejiofor in the paint. The Big East Player of the Year averages 16.3 points and 7.3 rebounds per game.
Duke’s Cameron Boozer is on his way to winning the Wooden Award. Boozer leads Duke with an average of 22.4 points, 10.3 rebounds, and 4.2 assists per game. But this game will be won (and covered) primarily by Duke’s defense.
The Blue Devils have a huge height advantage that will prevent St. John’s from executing close to the basket. That level of rim protection will produce longer shot attempts and fewer free-throw opportunities for the Red Storm.
Duke also ranks fourth nationally in rebound rate (57.9%), so don’t expect many second-chance opportunities for St. John’s tonight.
If the Johnnies want to try and do damage from long range, they’re facing a Duke defense that limits opponents to 30.5% shooting from behind the arc. That ranks the Blue Devils 20th in the country.
Pick: Duke -6.5
Best Player Prop for Duke Blue Devils
Patrick Ngongba II OVER 5.5 Rebounds (-108 at FanDuel)
Ngongba played for only 13 minutes against TCU in his return to the lineup after missing six games due to foot issues. He still managed to haul down four rebounds coming off the bench.
Expect his minutes and rebounds to increase tonight against St. John’s, which ranks No. 147 in shooting percentage nationally at just 45.2%. There will be plenty of opportunities for him on the defensive glass.
At 6-foot-11, Ngongba should feast against the smaller lineup of St. John’s.
Best Player Prop for St. John’s Red Storm
Dylan Darling UNDER 6.5 Points (-130 at FanDuel)
Dylan Darling played the role of hero with a buzzer-beater against Kansas, but that was his only basket of the game.
Darling has gone UNDER this number in four of his last five games, largely due to his awful 3-point shooting. He’s 1-of-21 from behind the arc during that span.
Given Duke’s elite perimeter defense, it’s hard to envision Darling eclipsing this total tonight.
