Prediction market platform Polymarket has created a new market on whether any of the 12 tonnes of KitKats stolen in transit between Italy and Poland will be returned.
The market currently makes it a 24% chance that Nestle, a Nestle affiliate, or a relevant government or law enforcement authority will recover any of the stolen chocolate bars by April 5.
The market rules state, “The confirmed recovery of any amount of the stolen KitKats, including a single bar, will be sufficient for this market to resolve to ‘Yes’.”
A user commented below the market, “Listen i got an idea. Steal 12 tonnes of Kit Kats and hedge against getting your kitkats taken away when you get caught by betting on yourself getting caught. So when you do get caught, you can buy new kitkats with your winnings. Win-win.”
It could also be possible for those responsible for the theft to return some of the bars and wager on the market. While Polymarket has taken steps to address insider trading, these markets open up a range of potentially problematic scenarios.
KitKat Confirms Massive Theft
KitKat confirmed that 12 tonnes, around 400,000 bars, had gone missing in a post on X on Sunday.
The post on X has over 120 million views, and the news has attracted mass media attention. Nestle has turned the theft into a marketing opportunity.
In a press release, the company said the bars were from its new Formula 1 range. The candy manufacturer recently signed an extension to its deal with the sport, making it the official chocolate bar of F1.
A KitKat spokesperson said, “We’ve always encouraged people to have a break with KITKAT – but it seems thieves have taken the message too literally and made a break with more than 12 tonnes of our chocolate.”
“Whilst we appreciate the criminals’ exceptional taste, the fact remains that cargo theft is an escalating issue for businesses of all sizes. With more sophisticated schemes being deployed on a regular basis, we have chosen to go public with our own experience in the hope that it raises awareness of an increasingly common criminal trend.”
Appeal for Insider Information
Nestle added, “Consumers are requested to not attempt to locate, handle or recover any stolen goods and to not take any direct action. Any relevant information should be shared with local law enforcement authorities.”
Those with any knowledge of the theft can also make a sizable profit on Polymarket. Over $33,000 has been traded on the market as of March 31.
Despite some backlash, Polymarket continues to push the boundaries of what markets are fair game for betting. There has been a recent surge of trading on the Iran war, including from military insiders.
Markets on pre-taped shows, such as Survivor, have also raised questions over which markets should be prohibited. Lawmakers are proposing stricter rules, but Polymarket largely operates through its international platform, which is not regulated in the US.
The company promoted the KitKat market in an email to users, referencing the current odds as a sign that the recovery is not looking good.
