Spain entered as the betting favorite to win the 2026 World Cup. Spain also entered yesterday’s opening match against Cape Verde as a prohibitive favorite. Polymarket offered Spain at 92% to win before the game kicked off.
Polymarket user “fishalive” bet $427,952 that Spain wouldn’t win, and then a funny thing happened.
A $4.7M win is not bad for two hours of “work” and a bold wager if you’ve got that kind of cash. We’ve kind of buried the lede here because the user’s total payout was $8.54M, including a “No” bet on Spain to cover -2.5 goals. Needless to say, “fishalive” climbed up Polymarket’s leaderboard for the biggest sports payouts and profit/loss.
Cape Verde’s unlikely draw was fueled by a 40-year-old goalie named Vozinha, who made seven saves to earn the clean sheet.
The news wasn’t so good for another Polymarket user, who bet nearly $1 million on Spain to win. The ultimate “sure thing” wager would have netted the user about $86,000.
Bigger High Roller Loses Mega Millions on Belgium
Those eye-popping bets on the Spain game at Polymarket were peanuts to users “leeroyjenkins,” who staked $8.6M on Belgium to beat Egypt to win $13.1M. User “flickraw” also wagered $1.5M on the Red Devils to win $2.4M.
Egypt pulled out a 1-1 draw and peed on their parade.
As we’re only in the first week of the 39-day tournament, expect more of these agony and defeat stories to come.
More than $50B is expected to be bet and traded on the 2026 World Cup, making it the largest betting event in sports history. The numbers are staggering, and they make you wonder where all of this is heading.
Updated World Cup Futures Odds
As of publication, France had supplanted Spain as the betting favorite to win the World Cup at Polymarket. Here are the top-10 teams in the “World Cup Winner” trading market.
| Team | Prediction Odds (Implied Probability) | American Odds |
| France | 17.7% | +465 |
| Spain | 13.9% | +619 |
| Portugal | 10.8% | +826 |
| England | 10.6% | +843 |
| Argentina | 9.7% | +931 |
| Brazil | 6.7% | +1393 |
| Germany | 6.2% | +1513 |
| Netherlands | 4.6% | +2074 |
| Norway | 2.6% | +3746 |
| Morocco | 2.2% | +4445 |
Take note, USMNT fans: The Americans nearly cracked the top 10. The US checked in at No. 11, with an implied probability of 2.1% and odds of +4662.
The best US finish (third) came in the first World Cup back in 1930. Most recently, the Americans advanced to the Round of 16 in the 2022 World Cup before losing to the Netherlands, 3-1.
The USMNT takes on Australia in its second group match on Friday at 3 p.m. ET.
