Who is George Cottrell? The High-Roller Gambler That Just Lost Big on US-Iran Strikes

While some have been accused of insider trading on prediction markets that wagered when the US would strike Iran, others lost big on the markets. One Polymarket user staked over $700,000 on the US not launching an assault. He has been identified as George Cottrell, a British political aide with a long history of gambling as well as a criminal conviction for money laundering.

His account on Polymarket is GCottrell93. The platform openly displays users’ trading history, and Cottrell’s shows his recent losses in markets related to the war in the Middle East.

The 32-year-old is down $846,483.20 in the last month, with four positions on the US not to strike Iran costing him $715,124.05.

The account, however, remains up by $3,435,885.80, largely thanks to a $4.46 million profit trading on whether Donald Trump would win the 2024 US Presidential Election.

Cottrell Lacked Insider Information

Cottrell is no stranger to politics. His uncle was the Government Chief Whip in the House of Lords. His mother allegedly had a relationship with King Charles before he married Princess Diana.

He has also made his own career path in politics. He has been described as UK politician Nigel Farage’s “right-hand man.“ The Reform party leader is hopeful of becoming Britain’s next Prime Minister. Although recently his party has fallen behind Labour in the election odds.

Farage’s relationship with Trump has also reportedly cooled recently. He had tried to position himself as a bridge between the President and Britain, and visited Mar-a-Lago this week, hoping to meet the Republican leader. However, Trump did not turn up.

It appears that information about Trump’s move to strike the US also did not reach Farage and Cottrell. Whether Cottrell’s position in politics should exclude him from engaging in prediction markets is a question for Polymarket.

The site is officially prohibited in the UK, and Iranian markets have appeared on its international site, which also excludes US users. The company has been less vocal in opposing insider trading than rival platform Kalshi.

Polymarket Unclear on Insider Trading

Polymarket CEO Shayne Coplan has previously hinted that the platform may even encourage insider trading to make markets more valuable predictors. Back in November, he stated, ” I think what’s cool about Polymarket is that it creates this financial incentive for people to go and divulge the information to the market and the market to change, and all of a sudden it’s trading at 95 cents.”

In the Iran case, having a political aide trading did not help its ability to predict events. Cottrell had clearly been confident that no military action was coming. Prior to his losses, he won just under $50,000 backing there to be no strikes.

That all blew up on February 28. In that market, the strikes were only given a 19.5% chance right up until they happened. The price was kept down by big spenders like Cottrell willing to take the “no” position.

Those on the other end have been accused of holding insider information. Israeli authorities have launched an investigation, looking particularly at one user, Magamyman’s trades. The Polymarket account has made almost $650,000 in profits over the last month, largely trading on Iran-related conflict markets.

History of Big Gambles

Cottrell is also no stranger to gambling. He has been identified as one of the frontmen for professional gambler Tony Bloom’s betting syndicate, Starlizard.

Former Starlizard employee Ryan Dudfield is suing Bloom, alleging he is owed a share of the profits from Cottrell’s wagers at crypto gambling sites. Bloom admits Cottrell placed bets on his behalf, but denies he owes him any money.

Bloom identified Cottrell as an ideal candidate to be a “whale” for the syndicate based on a history of losing big bets. The lawsuit stated, “Cottrell was not a particularly successful gambler, and frequently lost large sums of money.”

He reportedly lost as much as $20 million in one night playing poker. His association with gambling goes back to his school days when he was kicked out of Malvern College at age 16 for gambling. He said he started betting at the age of 12.

He had no qualms about placing bets for Bloom’s syndicate and was accustomed to high-stakes gambling. The lawsuit said his bets for Bloom lost $13.67 million in the first month. A few months later, however, the accounts were up by over $3 million.

Dudfield says the syndicate generates as much as $820 million in profits per year and claims he is owed $17.5 million. Bloom says it is profitable but calls this figure an exaggeration. It is unclear whether Cottrell is still placing bets on Bloom’s behalf.

How to Launder Money

Crypto gambling sites, which Polymarket’s unregulated international platform arguably comes under, have been accused of being vehicles to launder money.

Cottrell is also no stranger to money laundering. In fact, he has just co-authored a book titled “How To Launder Money.” The book’s blurb says it is “not to enable wrongdoing but to illuminate it, to showcase the bent levers of finance and how they are pulled.”

At the book’s launch, Cottrell said he has conducted extensive research on the topic, but joked that much of it is held by the FBI. In 2016, he was arrested while attending the Republican National Convention with Farage. Prosecutors say he advertised money laundering services on the dark web.

He was initially indicted on 21 counts for conspiracy to commit money laundering, wire fraud, blackmail, and extortion. He agreed to plead guilty to one count of wire fraud for the dismissal of the other charges.

He claimed that he did not intend to launder the money. In his plea agreement, he wrote, “I falsely claimed that I would launder the criminal proceeds through my bank accounts for a fee. Rather than launder any of the money, though … I intended to retain the money.”

After being arrested, he was deemed a flight risk and denied bail. He faced a maximum of 20 years in prison for the wire fraud count, but a judge sentenced him to eight months. As he had already served that time, he was released upon sentencing in March 2017.

Of his time in prison, he told The Telegraph, “Prison life was fascinating and had I not been to boarding school it would have been infinitely harder.”

He said that he had to fight for his life in maximum-security facilities in Chicago and Arizona that also housed murderers, rapists, pedophiles, assassins, terrorists, cartel kingpins, and a Mafia boss.

Upon release, he soon resumed his political activities and high-stakes gambling. Coming from a wealthy background, he is reportedly worth $310 million. The losses on the Iran strikes are a drop in the bucket.