The No. 11 Texas Longhorns face the No. 2 Purdue Boilermakers in tonight’s opening March Madness Sweet 16 game. Tip-off is scheduled for 7:10 p.m. ET on CBS.
Texas upset No. 3 Gonzaga, 74-68, to advance to the Sweet 16. Purdue blew past Miami, 79-69. DraftKings is dealing Purdue as a 7.5-point favorite with a total of 147.5.
We’re focusing on the total, with 63% of handle and 72% of tickets on the OVER at DraftKings as of publication next month.
If your NCAA Tournament bracket is busted, you’re not alone. There are still several opportunities to find value-based bets before a new champion is crowned next month in Indianapolis.
Best Bet Texas vs. Purdue: OVER 147.5 (-112)
KenPom ranks the Boilermakers No. 1 in the nation in adjusted offensive efficiency. Purdue is averaging 91.5 points per game in the NCAA Tournament.
The Boilermakers are also a top-10 team in shooting behind the arc. Purdue hits at a 38.8% clip, eighth-best in the country.
As good as the Boilers are at shooting the three, they’re lousy at defending it, ranking No. 173 nationally in allowing 33.9% of those attempts to go in. Texas is even worse at No. 253 at 35.1%.
Expect Purdue’s Fletcher Loyer to feast tonight. The senior guard is absolutely shedding it from long range. Loyer leads Purdue in 3P% at 43.3%. Check out his last five games shooting from behind the arc:
- 4 of 4 vs. Miami
- 4 of 8 vs. Queens
- 3 of 4 vs. Michigan
- 4 of 10 vs. UCLA
- 4 of 9 vs. Nebraska
Texas counters with guard Dailyn Swain (17.4 ppg, 7.5 rpg), who could be a matchup nightmare for Purdue. Center Matas Vokietaitis (15.7 ppg, 7.2 rpg) can fill it up, and Texas also had double-digit scorers in Tramon Mark and Jordan Pope.
Pick: OVER 147.5
Best Player Prop for Purdue Boilermakers
Fletcher Loyer OVER 14.5 Points (+100 at FanDuel)
For all of the reasons mentioned above, take Loyer to eclipse this number tonight. He’s coming off a 24-point performance against Miami.
Loyer was perfect from the free-throw line (8 of 8), 3-point line (4 of 4), and only missed one of seven shot attempts from the floor.
Jordan Pope OVER 13.5 Points (+100 at FanDuel)
The Longhorns have leaned on Jordan Pope‘s scoring during March Madness. Swain, the team’s leading scorer, has been limited to an average of 12.5 ppg in two tournament games.
Pope buried three 3-pointers against both BYU and Gonzaga. Along with Vokietaitis, he led the Longhorns with 17 points in the win over the Zags.
