Adam Roarty is a journalist covering sports betting, regulation, and industry innovation for CasinoBeats. His coverage includes tax increases in the UK, covering breaking stories in the ever-evolving landscape of US betting such as the...
Read Full BioUkrainian war tracking platform DeepState has publicly objected to the integration of markets on the conflict from Polymarket into their live map.
The markets were integrated by PolyGlobe, which describes itself as “a visual analytics layer designed to help people understand global events by connecting Open-source intelligence (OSINT), publicly available datasets, and Real-time prediction markets”.
The project was launched by Pentagon Pizza Watch, an account on X that primarily tracks pizza orders in the vicinity of the Pentagon. The theory behind this is that when there is a high number of pizza orders, it indicates activity is occurring at the military headquarters, suggesting the potential for military action overseas.
The Pentagon Pizza Watch account posted on X last week, “DeepStateLive’s Ukraine war map is now draped directly onto the globe, live and synced with Polymarket.”
The tool allows users to hover over the map and see a range of markets on the war. For example, hovering over the Lyman area brings up the market, “Will Russia capture any territory in Lyman by December 15?”
DeepState responded by voicing its opposition to its map being used to provide betting information. The platform posted, “To the attention of the public — DeepStateMap did NOT give permission for integration with bookmakers” (translated from Ukrainian).
The post went on to accuse Pentagon Pizza Watch of profiting from war. It also alleges that the integration with Polymarket has caused disruption to its service, forcing it to implement stricter API controls.
Pentagon Pizza Watch (PPW) responded by posting, “PPW does not endorse war, violence, or suffering of any kind. This update was not created to gamify conflict, celebrate destruction, or trivialize human life.”
It added that PolyGlobe “is purely informational and educational, a tool for contextualizing what’s happening in the world, not influencing it.”
Why War-Related Markets Exist
PPW went on to justify its tool and why war markets exist on Polymarket. It quoted the prediction market platform’s website, noting, “The promise of prediction markets is to harness the wisdom of the crowd to create accurate, unbiased forecasts for the most important events to society.
“That ability is particularly invaluable in gut-wrenching times like today. After discussing with those directly affected by the attacks, who had dozens of questions, we realized that prediction markets could give them answers in ways TV news and X could not.”
Markets on war are prohibited under the Commodity Exchange Act (CEA), which sets the rules for prediction market platforms licensed by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).
Polymarket has just relaunched in the US after securing a license from the CFTC. While still restricted in the US, its markets on war have attracted opposition. Germany warned users about engaging with the markets on military conflict, which is illegal in the country.
Polymarket CEO Appears to Endorse Insider Trading
There have also been accusations that military insiders have profited on some of the war markets, including those on Israeli airstrikes. Founder and CEO Shayne Coplan has hinted that the company is quite happy with insider trading on small markets, as the market movements provide the public with valuable insights.
Speaking last week, Coplan said, “I think what’s cool about Polymarket is that it creates this financial incentive for people to go and divulge the information to the market and the market to change, and all of a sudden it’s trading at 95 cents.”
Coplan did not specifically mention markets related to war. The company defends allowing users to trade on conflict by citing the markets as a source of truth.
PPW and PolyGlobe are not official Polymarket products. When asked whether the company is happy for its markets to be used by the platform, Polymarket declined to comment.
The platform, however, uses DeepStateMap as a source to settle its markets. For the market on whether Russia will capture any territory in Lyman, its rules state, “The primary resolution source for this market will be the ISW Ukraine map. If the ISW map is rendered unavailable, information from DeepStateMap may be used.”
As Polymarket gains traction again in the US, it will be interesting to see if it reduces the number of controversial markets available on war.
