Adam Roarty is a journalist covering sports betting, regulation, and industry innovation for CasinoBeats. His coverage includes tax increases in the UK, covering breaking stories in the ever-evolving landscape of US betting such as the...
Read Full BioKalshi shut down markets related to Charlie Kirk and informed some users that their money would be refunded following the political activist’s assassination. Meanwhile, Polymarket opened trading on a US civil war occurring this year.
In a message to users, Kalshi said: “We are deeply saddened by today’s tragic news about Charlie Kirk.” Kalshi then confirmed it would refund all trades made on Kirk-related markets after 2:20 p.m. ET on Wednesday, around the time that reports of the shooting emerged.
The platform had a market on whether Kirk would run for U.S. political office by 2029, but this page has now disappeared from the site. Usually, when markets close at Kalshi, they remain accessible.
Kalshi’s terms of how markets resolve are often vague, and in the event of a person’s death, there is no clear rule.
Polymarket Opens Trading on US Civil War
In terms of resolving markets, rival platform Polymarket is equally problematic. The site now has a market titled, “US civil war in 2025?”
In the market rules, it states, “The resolution source for this market will be a wide consensus of credible reporting confirming the US is in a civil war.”
This follows a series of markets offering users the ability to trade on air strikes and military action in Israel and Ukraine. Polymarket is set to accept US users again, but the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) may object to its markets on war.
The Commodity Exchange Act (CEA), which acts as the rulebook for CFTC-licensed platforms, prohibits trading on war and assassinations. It also prohibits markets on gaming, although this has not stopped Kalshi and other licensed platforms from offering sports markets.
There is no question that a state-licensed platform would be penalized if it opened the same kind of markets for betting. The Massachusetts Gaming Commission has fined operators for accepting bets on Russian soccer, never mind the Russian war.
Polymarket also has a market on whether the US and Russia will have a military clash this year. The chance moved up to 5% from 3% at the start of the month.
Polymarket does not explicitly open these war markets, which are user-created. However, it also does not shut them down.
The CFTC has so far been reluctant to step in and shut down markets that can be construed as sports betting. After Polymarket officially relaunches in the US, it will be interesting to see if it addresses any of the war markets.
