Steelers vs. Bengals Odds, Prediction: Best Bets for Thursday Night Football

NFL Week 7 kicks off with an AFC North slugfest between the Steelers and Bengals on Thursday Night Football. Kickoff is set for 8:15 p.m. ET on Prime Video.

The Steelers (4-1 SU, 3-2 ATS) lead the AFC North with the Joe Burrow-less Bengals (2-4 SU, 2-4 ATS) in second place in the division. The Steelers are a 5.5-point road favorite with a total of 45 at BetMGM as of publication. Notably, the total opened at 42.5, but 84% of BetMGM patrons backed the OVER, and pushed that number up by 2.5 points.

Best TNF Bet Against the Spread

Steelers -5.5 (-105)

Cleveland made the curious decision to trade QB Joe Flacco to Cincinnati, an in-division move that rarely happens. Flacco, 40, enjoyed a solid debut as a Bengal in last week’s 27-18 loss to Green Bay. He threw for 219 yards and two TDs with no picks. Star WR Ja’Marr Chase racked up 94 receiving yards and a touchdown.

The Bengals are riding a four-game losing streak. Conversely, the Steelers have won three straight games, and Mike Tomlin’s team is now a -190 betting favorite to win the AFC North at BetMGM.

Pittsburgh has performed well with new quarterback Aaron Rodgers at the helm. Rodgers recorded a 235-2-0 stat line in last week’s 23-9 win over Cleveland. We’ve had great success over the past week in backing home dogs (Jacksonville, Atlanta, and Jacksonville State in the college ranks last night).

All three teams won their games outright. That said, Pittsburgh is our preferred play on the spread for TNF.

Best TNF Player Prop for Steelers

Jaylen Warren OVER 49.5 Rushing Yards (-110)

Jaylen Warren goes up against the league’s 28th-ranked run defense in Cincinnati tonight. He’s coming off a season-high 52 rushing yards in last week’s win against Cleveland, and he’s averaged 49 yards in his last three games.

Given Cincinnati’s struggles against the run and the fact that the Bengals are yielding 135.7 yards per game, Warren should comfortably cover this number. Also consider backing Warren to go OVER his modest receiving yards total of 17.5. Fun fact: 99% of BetMGM’s patrons hammered the OVER on that, pushing the number up a point from 16.5 today.

Warren averages 38.3 receiving yards per contest, and he’s gone OVER 17.5 in three of his four games played this season.

Best TNF Player Prop for Bengals

Ja’ Marr Chase OVER 77.5 Receiving Yards (-115)

Chase took an immediate liking to Flacco in last week’s loss to the Packers. He snared 10 catches for a shade under 100 yards and found the end zone.

Pittsburgh has allowed Chase to eclipse this number in the last four games played between the AFC North rivals: 96, 86, 81, and 129. In his previous meeting against the Steelers, Chase had 10 catches on 14 targets for 96 yards and a TD.

The Steelers are far from world beaters when it comes to pass defense, either. They allow 245 yards per game, and that ranks Pittsburgh No. 27 (of 32 teams) in the NFL.