Trump Nominates Michael Selig to Lead CFTC: What It Means for Sports Prediction Markets

President Donald Trump has nominated Michael Selig as the next Chair of the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), signaling a sharper focus on digital-asset regulation and the unresolved clash over prediction markets.

In an X post, Selig, a high-ranking cryptocurrency regulator, stated that he will work to make the US “the Crypto Capital of the World.” Selig also said he will promote “freedom, competition, and innovation” across commodities markets.

The Quintenz Collapse

Selig’s nomination comes after the withdrawal of Brian Quintenz, who initially was expected to be confirmed easily. However, scrutiny of potential conflict of interest, tied to his connection to the prediction market platform Kalshi, led to the White House withdrawing his nomination.

Quintenz publicly stated that he will resign from Kalshi‘s board and recuse himself from matters related to Kalshi. Still, his appointment faced mounting opposition.

At the beginning of August, Congresswoman Dina Titus requested that the CFTC “release all relevant communications from or about Mr. Quintenz related to prediction markets and event contracts.” Just a week earlier, the White House had delayed Quintenz’s Senate vote amid growing bipartisan resistance.

Reports suggest that the Winklevoss twins — prominent Trump donors — urged the administration to withdraw the nomination. They allegedly argued that Quintenz did not align with the president’s crypto agenda.

New Regulatory Direction

Selig’s crypto background suggests that the CFTC may finally step into areas it has largely ignored, such as event-based contracts.

So far, the agency has taken a hands-off approach to prediction markets, allowing Kalshi to grow substantially. The platform has continuously self-certified sports event contracts. That’s despite state regulators warning that these contracts resemble sports betting rather than financial products.

If confirmed, Selig inherits the fallout from that vacuum: expanding litigation, conflicting state rulings, and mounting pressure for the CFTC to define the boundary between federally regulated derivatives and state-regulated wagers.

State regulators and licensed operators will monitor the situation closely. A pro-innovation CFTC could validate platforms like Kalshi or Polymarket, which will soon be relaunching in the US.

Some sportsbook operators, such as FanDuel and DraftKings, are already preparing for that scenario. FanDuel has partnered with the CME Group to offer event contracts, while DraftKings has acquired Railbird, a CFTC-licensed platform.

Meanwhile, a cautious, state-minded approach by the CFTC could reinforce local oversight. However, given the depth of interest by fintech and gambling operators in entering the space, investor confidence in existing platforms, and high-profile partnerships like those with the NHL, that scenario appears increasingly unlikely.

Prediction Markets in the Crossfire

Prediction-market operators have spent the past year fighting for legitimacy within that regulatory gap. Kalshi, along with companies like Robinhood and Crypto.com, has framed itself as a designated contract market under federal law. It argues that its contracts qualify as financial instruments rather than bets.

The ambiguity has also reached Capitol Hill. In September, a bipartisan group of senators pressed the CFTC to explain why contracts tied to sports outcomes continue to trade despite Regulation 40.11, which prohibits event contracts that reference gaming.

In response, CFTC issued a staff advisory notice cautioning that prediction platforms may have to limit their availability in jurisdictions where state regulators deem such products illegal.

These developments leave the agency—soon possibly under Selig’s leadership—under pressure to decide whether event contracts are legitimate financial products or disguised wagers.

What to Watch

• Court challenges and state enforcement — Several state gaming regulators, including in New Jersey, Maryland, and Nevada, have taken formal action against prediction-market operators. The Massachusetts Attorney General and tribal authorities have also filed lawsuits arguing that sports event contracts violate state gambling laws. Court rulings could help clarify whether these markets fall under federal derivatives regulation or state gaming law.
• CFTC rulemaking — With mounting legal pressure, the agency may move to clarify its interpretation of Regulation 40.11.
• Industry entrants — Major sportsbooks such as FanDuel and DraftKings are monitoring the space closely. Their eventual entry—or decision to wait—will signal how viable this market becomes under Selig’s leadership.
• Senate confirmation — Lawmakers are expected to question Selig’s prior industry work and his views on sports event contracts. Also, they will likely ask him about how he would handle the CFTC’s overlapping jurisdiction with state regulators.