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Read Full BioThe Winklevoss twins, made famous by their involvement in the early days of Facebook and their subsequent rise to billionaire status through crypto investments, are reportedly preparing to enter prediction markets.
The brothers are set to launch a range of markets through their crypto exchange Gemini in a bid to boost the company’s falling stock price.
Bloomberg reported that people familiar with the plans say Gemini Space Station, more commonly known as Gemini, “has discussed launching products as soon as possible.”
The company has filed with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) to operate its own derivatives exchange. Before going public in September, Gemini stated in its securities filings that it planned to launch event contracts covering economic data, financial markets, politics, and sports.
Winklevoss Twins Influence Trump to Drop CFTC Nominee
The Winklevoss twins were reportedly instrumental in Donald Trump’s decision to block the appointment of Brian Quintenz to lead the CFTC. The White House removed Quintenz as its nominee to lead the organization last month following intense pressure from the brothers.
Before the White House decision, Kalshi board member Quintenz released private messages he had exchanged with Tyler Winklevoss and said that, “It’s my understanding that after this exchange they contacted the President and asked that my confirmation be paused for reasons other than what is reflected in these texts.”
In the messages, Winklevoss had urged Quintenz to assure him that if elected as CFTC Chair, he would review a previous penalty Gemini was forced to pay to the CFTC. Quintenz refused to give concrete assurance and says this is what led to his nomination being removed.
Gemini Forced To Pay $5M Penalty to CFTC
The CFTC filed a lawsuit against Gemini in 2022, accusing the company of making false or misleading statements regarding a potential bitcoin futures contract in 2017.
In January this year, Gemini agreed to pay a $5 million penalty to settle the dispute. Winklevoss remains bitter about the settlement and insists the company did nothing wrong.
In messages to Quintenz, he wrote, “The CFTC totally abused the deliberative process privilege amongst many other abuses to prevent us from even [being] able to defend ourselves fairly in court.” He added: “7 years of lawfare trophy hunting. It’s outrageous what they did to us.”
Since Quintenz’s removal, Trump has nominated Michael Selig to lead the CFTC. Selig said he will promote “freedom, competition, and innovation” across commodities markets.
It appears under Selig, the Winklevosses are confident that the CFTC will approve their move into prediction markets. Trump is also entering the space and is set to launch prediction markets on Truth Social through a partnership with Crypto.com.
Gemini Stock Price Struggles After Initial Boom
After going public in September, Gemini’s stock price has dropped substantially. The company’s shares opened at $37.01, above an already raised IPO price of $28 apiece, which raised $425 million by selling around 15.2 million shares.
The stock is now priced at $16.29. The company’s first-half 2025 results revealed a net loss of $282.5 million on revenue of $68.6 million. This contrasted with a loss of $41.4 million on revenue of $74.3 million in the same period of 2024. A move into prediction markets may be the stimulus the company needs to increase revenue and investor value.
Prediction market platforms Kalshi and Polymarket have soared in value recently as sports markets offered on the sites have grown exponentially. A recent round of funding valued Kalshi at $5 billion, while investment from New York Stock Exchange owner Intercontinental Exchange (ICE) has put Polymarket’s value at $9 billion.
Polymarket is set to relaunch in the US in the coming weeks. Like Gemini, it was also sanctioned by the CFTC under the previous administration. Under Trump, the organization has done little to nothing to oppose the rapid expansion of prediction markets, despite states challenging their legality.
