Jets vs. Patriots Odds, Prediction: Best Bets for Thursday Night Football

The Jets and Patriots face off tonight in an AFC East showdown at Gillette Stadium. Kickoff is set for 8:15 p.m. ET on Prime Video.

New England (8-2 SU, 7-3 ATS) is atop the division standings under first-year coach Mike Vrabel. Conversely, New York (2-7 SU, 5-4 ATS) resides in the basement under the direction of rookie head coach Aaron Glenn.

The teams’ relative fortunes are reflected in the betting line at DraftKings. The Pats are a 12.5-point home favorite with a total of 43.5. As of publication, 51% of the spread handle and 57% of tickets are on New England.

Best Bet Jets vs. Patriots: Against the Spread

Patriots -12.5 (-115 at DraftKings)

The Jets opted not to trade RB Breece Hall, and they’ve been rewarded with terrific back-to-back performances and their first two wins of the year. Hall had 104 scrimmage yards and a TD on his only reception against the Browns last week. He torched the Bengals for 133 rushing yards and two TDs the game prior.

Hall has reverted to form, but New England’s defense is the league’s best against the rush. The Pats allow only 79.2 rushing yards per game. Opponents have only scored three rushing TDs against them this season.

The Jets will need to attack through the air, which could be a problem. Glenn hasn’t named a starting quarterback after Justin Fields got the call against the Browns. Fields threw for only 54 yards, with 42 of them coming on a screen pass that resulted in Hall’s touchdown.

Tyrod Taylor is New York’s other option, and neither player inspires much optimism when it comes to the passing attack. It doesn’t help that top WR Garrett Wilson will miss the game with a knee injury.

Meanwhile, Drake Maye has become a force for New England in his second NFL season. Maye is completing 71.7% of his passes and boasts a 19:5 TD-to-interception ratio. The Patriots average 26.5 points per game, and they’re taking a seven-game winning streak into tonight’s divisional tilt.

This is a lot of wood to lay, but New York’s lack of a passing game makes it the right play.

Best Player Prop for New England Patriots

TreVeyon Henderson OVER 75.5 Rushing Yards (-112 at FanDuel)

The Jets are porous against the run. New York gives up 138.2 rushing yards per game, ranking it 25th in the NFL. Rhamondre Stevenson started the first eight games of the season, but went down with a toe injury in Week 8 against Cleveland. He’ll remain sidelined tonight, paving the way for TreVeyon Henderson to have a huge night.

The rookie from Ohio State went off for 147 rushing yards and two TDs in last week’s win over Tampa Bay. Henderson now leads the team in rushing with 430 yards after that monster performance. He can pad his stats tonight against New York’s leaky run defense.

Best Player Props for New York Jets

Breece Hall Anytime TD Scorer (+185 at FanDuel)

Hall failed to score a touchdown through the first seven games of the season. Hall’s got three in his last two games, and with Wilson out, he’s the most likely suspect to hit paydirt for the Jets. It could very well come through the air again, given the strength of New England’s run defense.

Also, take a look at the UNDER 129.5 (-112 at FanDuel) on passing yards for Fields. If he struggles, which is likely, Taylor will take over. It’d be no surprise to see both players take snaps tonight.