Bills vs. Texans Odds & Picks: Best Bets for Thursday Night Football

NFL Week 12 kicks off tonight with Bills vs. Texans on Thursday Night Football. Prime Video has coverage starting at 8 p.m. ET.

Buffalo (7-3 SU, 5-5 ATS) is coming off a 44-32 win over Tampa Bay. Houston (5-5 SU, 4-6 ATS) is riding a two-game winning streak in the absence of starting quarterback CJ Stroud (concussion).

The Bills are a 5.5-point road favorite at DraftKings with a total of 43.5 as of this writing. Bettors are all over Buffalo, with 87% of the spread handle and 79% of tickets on the Bills.

Best Bills vs. Texans Bet: Against the Spread

Texans +5.5 (-110 at FanDuel)

Stroud remains in concussion protocol, and Davis Mills will get the start again at quarterback. Mills, making his third start, has led the Texans to wins over the Titans and Jaguars. The Bills will present a stiffer challenge, but Houston tops all 32 NFL teams in total defense (258.1 yards per game). The Texans also lead the league in scoring defense, allowing only 16.3 points per contest.

The Texans will try to slow quarterback Josh Allen, who accounted for six touchdowns in last week’s win over the Bucs. Allen also has a chance to break the record for most career rushing TDs by a quarterback tonight — after scoring three against Tampa Bay. He’s currently tied with former Carolina quarterback Cam Newton at 75.

Houston’s recipe for winning this game? Torch Buffalo’s horrid rush defense like Tampa Bay did last week. The Bucs amassed 202 rushing yards, and third-string RB Sean Tucker gashed the Bills for 103 yards and three TDs.

Buffalo gives up 153 yards on the ground per game. Only the Bengals (160.9) allow more. Woody Marks has supplanted Nick Chubb as RB1 for the Texans and could be in line for a big night.

Don’t expect Houston to completely shut down Allen & Company, but the defense should do enough to keep this game competitive. Likewise, the offense should do just enough for the Texans to cover.

Best Player Prop for Houston Texans

RB Woody Marks OVER 62.5 Yards (-112 at FanDuel)

Marks, a rookie out of USC, has been trending upward over the past two weeks after basically taking over the backfield.

Two weeks ago, Marks turned 14 carries into 63 yards and a TD against the Jaguars. Then, he had a season-high 18 carries last week against Tennessee.

As long as the volume remains in the range, he’ll have a great chance to eclipse this number against a Buffalo defense that gives up 5.4 yards per carry, which also ranks second-worst in the league.

Best Player Prop for Buffalo Bills

QB Josh Allen Anytime TD (-120 at FanDuel)

Allen is a beast near the goal line, and in the red zone, for that matter. He leads the Bills with 10 rushing touchdowns. More fun facts:

• Allen has scored seven rushing TDs in the past four games
• Allen has scored 50 rushing TDs during the past five seasons (including just 10 of 17 games this year)
• Allen and Otto Graham are the only players in NFL history to have three rushing TDs and three passing TDs in two games.

It’ll be fun to watch the game within the game, with Allen going for the all-time record against a Houston defense that’s only allowed eight rushing scores this season. We’re betting on history being made tonight.