NFL Commissioner: League Won’t Enter Prediction Markets While Rules Remain Unclear

NFL Commissioner Roger Goodell has indicated that the league has no plans to enter prediction markets until the regulatory landscape settles. That marks one of the strongest public stances yet from a major U.S. league amid the sector’s rapid growth.

Speaking at the Genius Sports Investor Day alongside CEO Mark Locke — whose company the NFL both partners with and invests in — Goodell said:

“That’s not something we’re about to enter into. We are going to see how things play out, both from a regulatory standpoint … There are a lot of legal challenges going on right now.”

His remarks come at a time when prediction markets are growing rapidly. They also come shortly after the NHL announced deals with Kalshi and Polymarket. With that, the NHL became the first major U.S. league to formally embrace event-contract trading. NHL Commissioner Gary Bettman said the partnership gives the league more control, not risk.

Industry observers have been watching whether other leagues would follow. The American Gaming Association has recently urged the NFL, NBA, and MLB not to follow the NHL’s approach until clearer regulations are in place.

NFL Takes Integrity-First Stance

Goodell emphasized that integrity remains a top concern for the league. He said:

“Integrity, obviously, is incredibly important to us, particularly when it comes to sports betting, because that’s the backbone of our success, is making sure that whatever you see play out on the field is not being influenced by any outside influences.”

He added that Genius’s monitoring technology is critical to that effort: “The ability for you to help us maintain that integrity and use the technology to do that is really valuable to us.”

The NFL’s caution echoes its earlier approach to sports betting. The league moved slowly after the repeal of PASPA and has taken a conservative stance on certain betting products. Most recently, it sent a memo to teams, signaling a tougher stance on prop bets.

Underlying all of this is the commissioner’s repeated warning about brand protection: “The risk to the brand is something that we take very seriously, and we won’t risk brand in something until we feel confident that we can do it.”

Prediction Markets Thrive on NFL Content

While the league is staying out, prediction-market platforms are generating significant engagement and volume around NFL games. Kalshi reported $303 million in trading volume during the opening weekend alone. The NFL generated more than half of all activity.

According to some reports, to date, Kalshi has seen $3.5 billion in cumulative trading volume on NFL game contracts. The data underscore the scale of demand for sports event markets tied to the country’s most valuable sports property.

Genius Sports Framing: Regulation Will Normalize

Locke, who appeared to deliberately tee up the topic, grounded the prediction-market opportunity in long-term maturation cycles. He said the regulation “is not clear.” That makes it difficult for leagues to engage, but Locke argued that normalization is inevitable:

“This will eventually normalize, regulation will come in… to build that trusted ecosystem… to create the guardrails, which ultimately protects the integrity of the sport, and to protect the consumer.”

He added that Genius is in a position to “win in every single outcome,” regardless of how fast or slowly regulation evolves.

Goodell’s Bottom Line

Goodell reiterated the NFL’s stance at the close of the discussion: “We’d like to be first in the market in a lot of things, but a lot of things we’re willing to say, we’re gonna let things play out… Is this something we want to do?”

For prediction markets, the answer — for now — is “not yet.”