Lynnae is a journalist covering the intersection of technology, culture, and gambling. She has more than five years of experience as a writer and editor, with bylines at SlashGear and MakeUseOf. On the iGaming side,...
Read Full BioAs the world woke up to news that Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro had been taken into U.S. custody on Saturday morning, at least one Polymarket trader had already locked in a huge profit. Polymarket activity logs, which were flagged by blockchain analytics firm Lookonchain and other market watchers on X, show that a newly created wallet placed a large “Yes” position on contracts predicting that Maduro would be “out by January 31, 2026.”
By the time the market had resolved after Maduro’s capture was confirmed, the position had generated more than $400,000 in profit for the person behind the wallet, based on an initial stake of just over $30,000.
Unsurprisingly, the well-timed trade raised more than a few eyebrows across social media, with many prediction-market observers on X openly questioning whether the suspicious activity involved insider trading, especially since there was very little publicly available information leading up to the U.S. operation that resulted in Maduro’s capture. Past comments from Polymarket CEO Shane Coplan suggesting he believes insider trading is “cool” have done little to quiet questions about how the platform handles non-public information.
New Wallet Placed Large Maduro Exit Bet Shortly Before Arrest
The biggest wager on the Venezuelan leader’s ouster came from a Polymarket account created in December 2025 that displayed no betting history outside Venezuela-related markets and had no prior betting activity before placing the trades.
Polymarket activity logs show that the wallet started purchasing “Yes” shares in the days leading up to the operation, before finally placing its biggest bets on Friday night, January 2, before any information about Maduro’s capture had been made public.
When the trader placed the bets, Polymarket put the chances of Maduro being removed from office at a paltry 5-6%, with the contract trading at just a few pennies. The price reflected the view held by most traders: that it was unlikely Maduro would leave office anytime soon.
However, within hours after the unidentified trader placed their final bet, President Donald Trump confirmed the U.S. operation and Maduro’s capture on Truth Social, after which the market resolved, locking in a six-figure payout for the trader.
Other Accounts Also Profited From Venezuela-Focused Bets
While the sizable six-figure trade is getting the most attention, Lookonchain has identified two other accounts that placed similarly timed bets tied to Maduro’s removal from office. Although those positions were smaller, they still generated profits ranging from tens of thousands of dollars to more than $100,000 for the unidentified traders.
Like the account responsible for the biggest payout, both of these accounts appeared to have been created recently, were pre-funded in the days leading up to the U.S. operation to capture Maduro in Venezuela, and had no history of betting on other events. Their activity was focused exclusively on the “Maduro out” markets.
When all was said and done, the three wallets netted more than $600,000 in combined profits, according to publicly available transaction data.
Trades Renew Questions About Prediction Market Integrity
The wagers on Maduro being removed from office took place during a narrow window when the U.S. operation was only known to a limited number of government officials and select news outlets, but had not yet reached the public. According to reporting from Semafor, The New York Times, and The Washington Post learned of the raid ahead of time and withheld their coverage at the administration’s request to protect U.S. personnel.
That information gap has reignited the debate on social media about how prediction markets handle asymmetric access to real-world events, a topic that has already been raised in the context of Polymarket war markets, which allow traders to bet on the outcomes of ongoing conflicts. While platforms such as Polymarket prohibit trading based on non-public information in their U.S. rulebooks, there’s little public information about how those rules are enforced in practice.
The Maduro case isn’t the first time Polymarket has faced questions about the integrity of its markets. Last December, a different set of concerns surfaced after 404 Media reported that a live battlefield map used to track frontlines in Ukraine was briefly edited to show a Russian advance into the city of Myrnohrad, just as a Polymarket contract tied to the town’s capture was approaching its resolution.
Because Polymarket relied on that map to determine the outcome, the contract resolved in favor of traders betting on a Russian takeover. Not long after the contract had resolved, the map edit was reversed, and the apparent advance disappeared, leading to questions about whether information from external sources could be manipulated to influence prediction market outcomes.
Questions about insider trading and the manipulation of market resolution mechanisms are likely to persist unless platforms like Polymarket develop clear and transparent systems for monitoring trading activity and determining outcomes.
Any determination of wrongdoing would ultimately fall under the jurisdiction of the Commodity Futures Trading Commission, which regulates event contracts as derivatives. However, whether or how the agency would pursue insider-trading or market manipulation allegations against prediction markets remains an open question.
