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Kris Johnson is a Charlotte-based deputy editor. He joined CasinoBeats in July 2025 and oversees the daily news flow of editing and publishing. Kris also reports on all aspects of the gambling industry with a...
Read Full BioThe No. 13 Michigan State Spartans meet the No. 8 Purdue Boilermakers in a Big Ten college basketball matchup tonight at Mackey Arena. Tip-off is set for 8 p.m. ET on NBC Sports Network.
Michigan State (22-5 SU, 12-13-2) is coming off a 66-60 win over Ohio State. Purdue (22-5 SU, 13-14 ATS) routed Indiana 93-64 its last time out. The Spartans and Boilermakers are tied for third place in the Big Ten standings with a record of 12-4.
DraftKings is dealing Purdue as a 7.5-point favorite with a total of 142.5 as of publication. 57% of spread handle and 39% of tickets are on Purdue.
Best Bet MSU vs. Purdue: UNDER 142.5 (-110 at DraftKings)
This should be a tightly contested game, and our favorite play is on the UNDER. Michigan State is ranked sixth in adjusted defensive efficiency by KenPom, while Purdue checks in at No. 23.
The Spartans rank 17th nationally in allowing just 66.1 points per game. Expect head coach Tom Izzo to lean on his defense against a potent Purdue offense, which likely won’t enjoy as many second-chance opportunities as it did in the rout over Indiana. That’s because Michigan State leads all Big Ten teams in rebounding, hauling down 41.1 boards per game.
Going back to KenPom’s metrics, Purdue ranks 295th in adjusted tempo (possessions per 40 minutes), with Michigan State not much better at 266th. With a slower pace expected, we’re going UNDER 142.5.
Best Player Prop for Purdue Boilermakers
Braden Smith OVER 7.5 Assists (-125 at BetMGM)
Braden Smith is Purdue’s floor general. Tonight’s matchup with opposing point guard Jeremy Fears Jr. will showcase two of the country’s best players at the position. Fears leads the nation in assists with 9.2 apg, and Smith ranks second with 8.7 apg.
Smith has a variety of options to dish to, including Fletcher Loyer beyond the arc and forward Trey Kaufman-Renn down low. Smith leads the Boilermakers with 14.9 points per game, but we expect him to be just as dangerous as a distributor tonight.
Best Player Prop for Michigan State Spartans
Jeremy Fears Jr. OVER 14.5 Points (+104 at FanDuel)
At BetMGM, this prop was lined at 16.5. Always be sure to compare the odds and prices at multiple sportsbooks. Fears has surpassed this point total in nine of his last 13 games. He leads the Spartans with 15 ppg.
Fears elevates his production in big games, too. He scored a season-high 31 points against No. 3 Michigan and 26 against No. 5 Illinois. If Michigan State has a chance to win outright tonight, it will be because of a similar output by Fears.
