UK Election Odds: Labour Becomes Favorite, as Reform UK Sees Chances Damaged By Restore Britain

There has been a shift in UK election odds, with Labour now ahead of Reform UK, which had been the favorite for the past 18 months.

Last year, all UK bookmakers had Reform as a strong favorite at around -110 (odds-on in British format). Now, however, Nigel Farage‘s party is behind Labour in the betting at odds of around +188 (15/8).

Labour now leads the market, with bookies giving the party around a 38% chance of success, or odds of +163 (13/8). The introduction of a new right-wing party appears to have damaged Reform’s chances and enhanced Labour’s prospects.

New Party Restores Labour at Top

Former Reform MP Rupert Lowe formally registered his new party, Restore Britain, earlier this month. The party says it wants to restore the UK to its former glory by implementing the mass deportation of illegal immigrants.

Other policies focus on putting British people first, excluding foreigners from social welfare, scrapping foreign aid, and restoring the British high street and pubs.

Bookies give Restore around a 7% chance of success in the next election, which is scheduled for 2029. Some Reform members defected to Restore this week, including Kieran Mishchuk, a councillor for the Swale Borough Council in Kent. Mishchuk said he switched allegiance as he prefers Lowe to Farage.

William Kedjanyi, Star Sports’ political betting analyst, said Labour’s odds have improved because of the new party’s potential to split the right-wing vote.

Kedjanyi told the Standard, “It’s been 18 months since we saw Labour as favourites to win most seats at the next General Election, but Keir Starmer’s party have been in the ascendancy in the market, shortening into 13/8 from 15/8 in the past week to supplant Reform at the head of the betting.”

He added, “That change has largely been driven by the introduction of Restore Britain to the growing number of political parties set to contest the next General Election, and they look likely to eat into the Reform vote.”

Political Betting Causes Controversy

At the 2024 election, several individuals with ties to political parties faced legal scrutiny for betting. The UK Gambling Commission charged 15 people with using confidential information to gain an unfair advantage in markets.

Specifically, those charged were accused of using insider knowledge gained from their ties to the Conservative Party to wager on when the election would be called.

Labour candidate Kevin Craig was also suspended from the party for betting against himself in the election. Craig said he was “deeply sorry to the many dedicated and loyal local Labour Party volunteers” who supported his campaign.

In the UK, election betting has been allowed for some time, but those with insider knowledge are prohibited from wagering on markets. In the US, prediction markets have opened the door to political betting. Former California Gubernatorial candidate Kyle Langford was fined by Kalshi this week for betting on himself to win the race.