Kris Johnson iGaming Journalist
Kris Johnson is a Charlotte-based deputy editor. He joined CasinoBeats in July 2025 and oversees the daily news flow of editing and publishing. Kris also reports on all aspects of the gambling industry with a...
Read Full BioThis year’s March Madness field of NCAA Tournament teams will be set in less than two weeks, but it’s the trio of Michigan, Duke, and Arizona that’s most likely to cut down the nets in Indianapolis as this year’s national champion.
That’s based on odds at BetMGM, which we will examine below before assessing each team’s chances to win it all.
National Championship Odds at BetMGM Sportsbook
Here are BetMGM‘s odds on the top NCAA men’s basketball teams to win this year’s national title as of publication:
- Michigan +325
- Duke +350
- Arizona +425
- Florida +900
- Houston +950
- UConn +1300
- Illinois +1400
- Iowa State +1600
- Kansas +3000
- Purdue +4000
- Michigan State +4000
- Gonzaga +5500
- Arkansas +6600
- Alabama +6600
- Nebraska +6600
- Virginia +6600
- Tennessee +6600
Houston opened as the +900 favorite to win this year’s national championship. But Michigan (12.4%), Duke (9.3%), and Arizona (6.8%) have commanded the most bets in this market at BetMGM. In terms of handle, Michigan (13%), Houston (12.2%), and Arizona (11.9%) lead the way.
Best Bets to Win 2026 National Championship
You can make a case for all three teams at the top, but nobody is playing better currently than Florida (+900), the defending national champion. UConn (+1300) and Michigan State (+4000) also merit consideration outside of the top trio.
Michigan (+325)
It’s interesting to see Michigan (27-2) favored over Duke (27-2) after the two teams met on Feb. 21. The Blue Devils defeated the Wolverines, 68-63, at Capital One Arena in Washington, D.C.
Michigan stands alone as the only team with top-5 ratings in both offensive and defensive efficiency at KenPom. With the nation’s second-ranked defense, Michigan also features a well-balanced offense led by UAB transfer Yaxel Lendeborg (14.2 ppg, 7.2 rpg, 3.3 apg).
Former North Carolina standout Elliott Cadeau (10.1 ppg, 5.5 apg) brings veteran leadership to the point guard position, which is a critical piece of the national championship puzzle every year.
Duke (+350)
Duke freshman Cameron Boozer (team-leading 22.5 ppg, 10 rpg, and 4 apg) is the most likely winner of this year’s Wooden Award as the nation’s best college basketball player. If that comes to fruition, it’ll mark the second straight year a Duke freshman captured the award after Cooper Flagg last season.
Duke’s top-ranked defense just smothered No. 11 Virginia 77-51 at Cameron Indoor Stadium on Saturday. The Blue Devils also have tremendous secondary scoring options with Isaiah Evans (14.7 ppg) and Patrick Ngongba II (10.7 ppg).
Duke’s defense limited Michigan, which averages 89 points per game, to 63 in the recent win. That’s worth keeping in mind if a potential rematch arises.
Arizona (+425)
Arizona (27-2) will look to improve on its Sweet 16 appearance from a year ago. The Wildcats are coming off an 84-61 throttling of No. 14 Kansas. Arizona also has signature wins over Florida, UConn, Alabama, BYU, and Houston.
This is a young, dynamic team paced offensively by Brayden Burries (15.5 ppg), Koa Peat (13.8 ppg), and Ivan Kharchenkov (10.1 ppg). All three players are freshmen, but senior guard Jaden Bradley (13.8 ppg, 4.6 apg) can shepherd this squad on a deep tournament run.
KenPom ranks Arizona No. 3 in the country in defense, as the Wildcats allow only 68.6 ppg.
Best Bet on Favorite: Duke +350
Best Bet on Sleeper: UConn: +1300
Best Bet on Longshot: Michigan State +4000
