I Tried Betting on Sports With a Prediction Market, Here’s What Happened

In advance of yesterday’s Michigan State vs. Michigan bruiser of a basketball game, I decided to join DraftKings Predictions. It seemed a fitting way to usher in March Madness, which starts in earnest next week.

The similarity between the prediction market and sportsbook user experience began immediately, with the former offering $50 in Predictions Dollars just for opting in and making a $5 trade (bet).

It’s been two years, nearly to the day, that North Carolina started offering legal sports betting. DraftKings Sportsbook‘s welcome offer for North Carolinians (and South Carolinians who live close to the state line) was far more generous back then. It was “Bet $5, Get $250 in Bonus Bets.” You didn’t have to win the wager to collect the bonus, either.

What finally compelled me to start using a prediction market to bet on sports — besides the free $50, anyway — was the fact that Michigan State was getting 10.5 points on the spread at Predictions and just 9.5 at the sportsbook. My plan was to make the initial $5 trade (bet) on the “No” market for Michigan to win by 10.5 points or more, which I did at -117.

One of the most basic rules when it comes to betting on sports is to compare the odds on multiple platforms to ensure you get the most value. I took 10.5 points with Sparty at -117, while DK’s sportsbook offered just 9.5 at -115.

Final score: Michigan 90, Michigan State 80. Grabbing the 10.5 at Predictions made me look like a genius, but I failed to execute the most important part of the plan. After previously opting in for the $50 bonus, or so I thought, the move was to make the same exact bet on Michigan State +10.5 for $50.

I evidently failed to opt in for the bonus, and none was applied. Missed opportunity, notwithstanding, the fine folks at Predictions added $50 to the account after my second trade (bet) on ETSU -2.5 over Furman (+113) in today’s Southern Conference championship game.

Bring on DraftKings Sports & Casino’s ‘Super App’ Already

DraftKings recently announced its plans to deliver a “super app” that will integrate its online gaming products (sportsbook, iGaming) and potentially Pick6 this month.

It’s worth noting here that I also have a DraftKings Pick6 account (p.s. don’t judge me), which is nice because it’s legal in South Carolina. If I don’t feel like making the short drive to North Carolina to make an actual bet at the sportsbook, Pick6 comes in handy. For the uninitiated, you’re betting at least two player props involving a minimum of two different teams on Pick6.

These are essentially carbon copies of the same-game parlays (SGPs) offered at sportsbooks. You can parlay up to six player props at DK Pick6, but your chances of winning decrease accordingly with each added selection.

SGPs are high-margin products for sportsbooks, and sucker bets for many recreational bettors, including me. To wit, yesterday’s close call:

• Jaxon Kohler OVER 11.5 points (Yes!)
• Yaxel Lendeborg OVER 15.5 points (Yes!)
• Aday Mara OVER 10.5 points (NO!)

Mara, Michigan’s center, was called for two early fouls and didn’t play for the majority of the first half. He was offensively challenged in the second half and finished with four frigging points. This happens on the regular, but it would have been the second decent hit in as many days after this one on UNC vs. Duke cashed.

In closing, my experience using all three platforms at DraftKings has been relatively hiccup-free. Personally, I’m not using Predictions as an investment tool. Let’s be honest: The majority of people trading on sports event contracts probably aren’t either.

If you are, shoot me an email ([email protected]), and we’ll tell your story for the benefit of our readers.