Former DraftKings’ Exec Dishes on March Madness, $4.5B Record Handle Expected at U.S. Sportsbooks

As March Madness gets set to deliver its dazzling share of buzzer beaters, upsets, and shining moments, U.S. sports bettors are expected to produce a record betting handle on the 2026 NCAA Men’s Basketball Tournament.

Matthew Bakowicz understands firsthand how much March Madness impacts the regulated industry, having managed sportsbook operations for DraftKings at Foxwoods Resort Casino. Bakowicz oversaw hundreds of millions of dollars in wagers and handled risk management, customer behavior analysis, and regulatory compliance.

An estimated $3.1 billion was bet on last year’s NCAA Tournament, with $4 billion projected this year. Bakowicz explains why that figure might be on the conservative end.

Now serving as the director of the Sports Management Program at American University’s Kogod School of Business, Bakowicz took time out from an industry event in New York today to speak exclusively with CasinoBeats. Our conversation was edited for brevity and clarity.

Sustained Stretch of Betting on March Madness is Massive

CasinoBeats: Let’s talk March Madness for people who might not follow the industry closely. Just how important is it to a sportsbook’s business each year?

Matthew Bakowicz: This is our third biggest event in terms of revenue. The World Cup will always be the highest-bet; the Super Bowl will always be the biggest given day. This is your biggest stretch of wagering, from Selection Sunday through the championship game on April 6.

CB: In terms of revenue, what kind of spike do you expect to see?

Bakowicz: It’s hard to predict what the individual spike is going to be at each book. But right now, current predictions are $4 billion being wagered at all legal entities in the United States. I would kick that to $4.5 billion because that (previous) number is only really counting for about 36 of the legalized states. We now have 40 legalized states. Those four states are going to take in a total of about $500 million, so we’re looking at $4.5 billion nationwide. So I would say, from an operator’s standpoint, we’re looking at at least a 45% to almost 60% increase on a day’s handle at a sportsbook for weekdays, and over 200% to 250% increase on weekends for March Madness. 

CB: Obviously, those numbers don’t include prediction markets. Do you see them as a threat to sportsbooks?

Bakowicz: Are they a threat to tax revenue for a particular state? 100% because they are not currently regulated by state gaming commissions. Is this taking business away from DraftKings and FanDuel? I would very much compare it to the fast-food industry. There’s 25 different options on a given street here, McDonald’s, Burger King, KFC, Wendy’s, and all are threats to each other because they all pretty much offer somewhat of the same product.

CB: What are some of the biggest trends to keep an eye on going forward?

Bakowicz: The real big threat is the tax revenue structure. Not allowing tax revenue and not allowing that to benefit the state is a huge threat. Gaming regulation is also a huge threat because sports betting is regulated at the state level, and prediction markets are regulated at the federal level. There’s definite conflict, and the biggest one is the age gap. You’re having individuals 18-21 engaging in prediction markets who normally would not legally go out to wager in gambling markets.

CB: Let’s talk about customer acquisition. From that standpoint, how much does March Madness bring in new bettors? 

Bakowicz: The Super Bowl serves as one of the biggest recruitment tools. So, what you have is two groups of individuals. You have ones that say, ‘Hey, listen, the Super Bowl, I started betting and this is kind of cool. I’m involved in it. What’s the next thing? So this is kind of your game two, if you will. You wowed me at game one. What can you do for game two? I compare it to the sequel of a movie. It could be an amazing sequel, or it could bomb. So, this is really a continuation of customers from the Super Bowl excitement. Can we keep them and retain them for a very long stretch of the summer, which is not as exciting.

CB: Welcome offers are critical to customer acquisition. How do bonuses typically differ for the Super Bowl and March Madness?

Bakowicz: It’s the same strategy as the Super Bowl options in terms of bonuses, loyalty programs, and things that we can give you in terms of gifts that will allow you to stay on and make betting at March Madness worthwhile. The only difference is those gifts don’t seem as high in value. With the Super Bowl, you’re betting on one game. In March Madness, there are 68 games. That’s a lot of games. You might get 20 $5 (bonus) bets.

CB: What was the best bonus offer you had when you were at DraftKings?

Bakowicz: The one that we had for DraftKings was ‘Bet $5, Get $300 in Bonus Bets.’ That was by far the best one in terms of value. Bonus bets are tricky. Most people don’t realize that if I wager $100 (on a normal bet), I get my $100 back, plus my profit. The bonus bet only gives you your winnings. So, you’re not betting $100 to get $190 back. You’re betting $100 to get $90 in profit. So technically, with the vig, you’re probably not getting the full $300. Let’s say you hit 56-57%, and that’s your best handicappers in the world. You’re getting, I don’t know, let’s call it $171. So, it’s really bet $5, be perfect, and get $171. But it’s still the best in all honesty.

CB: What’s the best welcome offer on the market now, one you’d recommend for betting on March Madness as a new customer?

Bakowicz: BetMGM has really crushed the market. They’re offering up to $1,500 in free bonus bets over a 10-day period. They’ve been the champion, in my opinion, of max value. If I was in charge of marketing for a sports betting company, that’s the route I would go. That’s a much better rationing over a March Madness period that takes place over multiple days, and keeping the customer engaged is very, very powerful on that end.

CB: Hate to end on a sour note, but what’s your take on the most recent NCAA point-shaving scandal?

Bakowicz: Very simple. The more regulation, the better. You don’t ever want to see somebody messing with the integrity of the game. The news stories show that organizations like the NCAA, MLB, and the NFL care about that integrity. They’re monitoring things. This morning, we saw that referees will be watched for opening sports betting accounts. I like to see that because it shows that people are trying to preserve the integrity of the game.

CB: The reality seems to be we’ll always have some bad actors in the industry.

Bakowicz: Sports betting has been around for over 100+ years, and it’s always going to be around. So my viewpoint is, when we see legalized regulation, we see a commitment to game integrity. We know that the leagues are in lockstep with the general public to keep things by the book. And I like that. Do I like to see people doing the wrong things? No, but this is human nature. We have free will for a reason. We can choose to make correct choices. We can choose to make incorrect choices. That’s no different in any type of setting. I just like the fact that the leagues are standing by and saying, ‘If you choose to make a wrong choice, you’re going to be caught, and going to be punished to the full extent of the law.’