March Madness Odds & Predictions: Best Bets on Upset, Final Four & Buzzer-Beater Prop

As a public service for those who don’t know a thing about college basketball, we asked Gemini AI to pick the winner of every NCAA Tournament game.

Personally, I filled out my bracket prior to asking Gemini 3 for its selections. Eerily, we ended up with the same matchup in the championship game, and Duke defeating Michigan to win the national title.

Our prompt to Gemini 3 was straightforward: Pick the winner of every NCAA Tournament game, including the national championship. Using the same prompt at ChatGPT brought back Arizona as the national champion.

Like many human experts, our preferred Gemini chatbot predicted a pretty chalky Final Four, including a pair of No. 1 seeds in Duke and Michigan and two No. 2 seeds in Purdue and Houston. But Gemini 3 featured three upsets in the opening round, with McNeese State, VCU, and South Florida all winning as double-digit seeds.

Here is one human’s take on how things will play out over the next three weeks.

Major Opening-Round Upset

No. 12 Akron Beats No. 5 Texas Tech

Texas Tech (22-10) enters the tournament riding a three-game losing streak after falling to TCU, BYU, and Iowa State. The Red Raiders lost all-world forward JT Toppin to a torn ACL last month.

Toppin, who many considered the best player in the country aside from Duke’s Cameron Boozer, averaged 21.8 points and 10.8 rebounds. Meanwhile, guard Christian Anderson might be compromised against Akron after pulling a groin in the loss against Iowa State.

Akron (29-5) has qualified for the NCAA Tournament the past three seasons, but the Zips are still looking for their first-ever March Madness win. They are a top-10 scoring unit, ranking seventh nationally with 88.4 ppg. Toppin’s absence will also be felt on the defensive end against one of the country’s most explosive teams.

The Zips are a 7.5-point underdog as of publication, but expect senior guard Tavari Johnson (20.1 ppg) and Akron to advance.

Best Bet: Akron +230 on moneyline (DraftKings)

Favorites Dominate Final Four (Again)

Last season, all four No. 1 seeds advanced to the Final Four, marking only the second time that’s happened. The first came back in 2008. While we don’t expect that this time around, chalk should again dominate.

Florida (1) vs. Duke (1)

Florida was playing better than anyone before getting vanquished by Vanderbilt in the SEC Tournament. Duke rolled to the ACC Tournament title without two starters in guard Caleb Foster and center Patrick Ngongba II, who is expected back.

Foster (fractured foot) might not be available until the Final Four, but Duke has the depth to overcome that absence. Boozer (22.5 ppg, 10.2 rpg, and 4.2 apg) is the top player in the country. Guard Isaiah Evans (14.9 ppg) leads the Blue Devils with 92 3-pointers on the season.

Winner: Duke

Michigan (1) vs. Purdue (2)

Michigan won’t lack for motivation after losing to Purdue in yesterday’s Big Ten title game. It was a masterful performance by the Boilermakers, but the Wolverines have all the pieces to win the rubber match.

Michigan beat Purdue 90-81 during the regular season. KenPom ranks the Wolverines as the No. 1 in defense in America. Michigan can also score with the best of them, ranking 11th nationally at 86.6 ppg.

Best Bets to Make Final Four at DraftKings:

• Duke -130
• Michigan -130
• Florida +165
• Purdue +360

Best Novelty Prop

DraftKings is offering +110 odds on “Yes” to a buzzer-beater during March Madness. As in a single buzzer-beater. This is not as easy as one might think.

Last year, Maryland’s Derik Queen had the only buzzer-beater in the second round against Colorado State. This is still a fun bet to make before the tournament to see if/when a buzzer-beater happens. Good luck!