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Read Full BioIsraeli journalist Emanuel Fabian has reported receiving death threats from Polymarket users who had wagered on markets relating to the conflict in Iran.
Fabian wrote an article on March 10 for The Times of Israel reporting that Iran had fired some 300 missiles at Israel. He also posted a video on X showing a missile striking an open area just outside Beit Shemesh.
Despite this evidence, Polymarket users claimed that the missiles were intercepted and therefore the platform’s market on whether Iran would strike Israel on March 10 should settle as no.
Polymarket settled the market as yes, but users disputed this, leading to a further review. Over $21 million has been traded on the market, and users continue to debate how it should be settled.
When markets are disputed, Polymarket opens up a voting system on UMA. This has now closed, but not before users in the comments section urged all those who have wagered no to register their votes. The results of the vote are due to be revealed later on Tuesday.
‘We Will Invest To Finish You’
In addition to campaigning for Polymarket to change its initial ruling, some users went further and contacted Fabian. He reported receiving multiple emails and WhatsApp messages in Hebrew from Israelis demanding he change his article and state that the missile was intercepted.
The market rules stated, “Missiles or drones that are intercepted… will not be sufficient for a ‘Yes’ resolution, regardless of whether they land on Israeli territory or cause damage.”
Initial messages sent to Fabian were fairly polite, but they soon escalated. On Saturday night, he reported receiving threatening messages in Hebrew on WhatsApp from someone called Haim.
“You have exactly half an hour to correct your attempt at influence,” he wrote.
Then came more explicit threats.
“If you do not correct this by 01:00 Israel time today, March 15, you are bringing upon yourself damage you have never imagined you would suffer.”
Fabian did not reply.
Haim added, “You have no idea how much you’ve put yourself at risk. Today is the most significant day of your career. You have two choices: either believe that we have the capabilities, and after you make us lose $900,000 we will invest no less than that to finish you. Or end this with money in your pocket, and also earn back the life you had until now.”
Another message stated, “You are choosing to go to war knowing that you will lose your life as you’ve grown accustomed to it — for nothing.”
Threats Continued Throughout Sunday
Throughout Sunday, messages continued with new deadlines for Fabian to update his article. The threats accused Fabian of manipulating the market for his own gain.
Fabian then received a WhatsApp message from someone posing as a lawyer named Vered. In a phone call, Vered said that they were contacted by a company in the US to investigate his supposed market manipulation.
The threats changed from violence to saying they would make his life miserable, within the law. A new message stated, “If you decide not to correct it, and leave the lie intact, you will discover enemies who will be willing to pay anything to make your life miserable — within the framework of the law.”
Rather than change his article, Fabian went to the police, who are now investigating the threats he received.
Polymarket Condemns Threats
After Fabian published his article reporting the threats he had received, Polymarket condemned the behavior. In a post on X, the platform said it has banned the users involved and will share their details with authorities.
A spokesperson also told The Times of Israel, “Prediction markets depend on the integrity of independent reporting. Attempts to pressure journalists to alter their reporting undermine that integrity and undermine the markets themselves.”
Fabian said that although he had not caved to the pressure and changed his reporting, he worried that “other journalists may not be as ethical if they are promised some of the winnings.”
Middle East Markets Cause Controversy
Markets on the conflict in the Middle East continue to cause controversy. In the US, markets related to war, terrorism, and death are already prohibited. Kalshi made a new “death rule” after its market on Iran’s leader Ali Khamenei sparked a heated debate.
As the markets at Polymarket have gained widespread news coverage, lawmakers have responded by calling for increased rules to prevent these kinds of markets from appearing. U.S. Senator Adam Schiff introduced the DEATH BETS Act to further clarify that any markets related to death are not allowed.
However, these markets are appearing on Polymarket’s international site rather than its US platform. The international platform is not governed by US authorities and does not appear to comply with any nation’s regulations.
Polymarket appears to have no plans to stop offering the war-related markets on its platform, despite a series of controversial incidents.
Two Israelis have already been indicted for using classified information to place wagers on Polymarket about the timing of the country’s military operations.
Israeli police have also opened an investigation into another user’s wagers on the US’ strikes on Iran.
The company did remove a market that allowed users to trade on where a nuclear weapon would detonate before 2027, but there remains a wide range of markets on conflicts. As well as trading on the tensions between Iran, the US, and Israel, users can wager on the war in Ukraine, China invading Taiwan, and the US striking Cuba.
