Lynnae Williams Journalist
Lynnae is a journalist covering the intersection of technology, culture, and gambling. She has more than five years of experience as a writer and editor, with bylines at SlashGear and MakeUseOf. On the iGaming side,...
Read Full BioWith much fanfare, Kalshi announced on Monday that it would award $1 billion to anyone who submits a perfect March Madness bracket.
On X, Kalshi CEO Tarek Mansour conceded the odds of winning the massive prize were nearly zero, but not impossible, saying the odds were 1 in 120 billion. In the post, Mansour also pointed out that back in 2014, Warren Buffett had offered anyone with a perfect bracket $1 billion, saying, “Kalshi is bringing it back.” Buffett’s challenge was also a headline-grabbing offer that, unsurprisingly, nobody won.
In the press release announcing the challenge, Kalshi said, “You probably won’t win this contest,” and estimated the chances of a perfect bracket at roughly 1 in 9.2 quintillion if every game were treated like a coin flip.
While the odds of anyone achieving a perfect bracket are incredibly low, as a consolation prize, the prediction market says it’ll give $1 million to whoever has the top-scoring bracket and donate another $1 million to charities of its choosing.
The promotion is free to enter, requires no trade or deposit, and is open to U.S. residents 18 and older, but isn’t available to residents of Florida or New York. Kalshi said the billion-dollar prize is being financially backed by SIG Parametrics, LLC, which is part of the Susquehanna Group.
Devin Booker Fronts Kalshi’s New Bracket Push
As part of the promotion, Kalshi has partnered with Phoenix Suns star Devin Booker, making the shooting guard the face of its “Billion Dollar Bracket Challenge.” Booker was part of the 2014 Kentucky team that entered the tournament 31-0, only to see its perfect season end in the Final Four after one of the most dominant runs in college basketball history.
Booker references that failed bid for perfection in a post on X, saying, “Everyone thought we were going to finish perfect. We didn’t. That’s life. But that doesn’t stop you from chasing it.” He then ties that near-miss season to his decision to partner with Kalshi, which he pitches as being another chance to chase perfection.
Kalshi connected Booker’s involvement to the charitable side of its campaign, saying it would give $500,000 to mentoring nonprofit iMentor and another $500,000 to Starting Five, Booker’s charity supporting youth and family organizations in Arizona.
Kalshi’s Promotion Lands as NCAA Tensions Persist
Kalshi’s March Madness promotion comes with some baggage for the exchange. Last month, the NCAA asked the company to stop using the phrase “March Madness” on its platform, saying it had never given the prediction market permission to use its trademark and calling the branding “a misrepresentation of any NCAA involvement.” Kalshi later removed the term from its primary markets, and it appears the company has scrubbed it from all contracts related to the tournament.
That dispute over March Madness branding followed an even more heated controversy in December when Kalshi faced backlash over proposed event contracts tied to whether NCAA athletes would enter or withdraw from the transfer portal. NCAA President Charlie Baker blasted the idea as “absolutely unacceptable,” and Kalshi later said it had “no immediate plans” to list those contracts.
