New Poll Finds Americans More Likely to Call Prediction Markets Betting Than Investing

When asked about prediction markets, most Americans think “sportsbook,” not “Wall Street,” according to a new poll commissioned by the American Institute for Boys and Men and conducted by Ipsos. 

According to the results, 61% of Americans said buying event contracts on prediction markets was closer to gambling, while just 8% said it was closer to investing. Among respondents familiar with prediction markets, an overwhelming majority (91%) considered buying an event contract financially risky, with many placing it in the same risk category as cryptocurrency investing and sports betting.

While prediction markets have received a lot of attention of late and have had high-profile partnerships, like Polymarket bringing betting odds to the Golden Globes, the poll found familiarity with these platforms is still low. Only 21% of those surveyed reported being very or somewhat familiar with prediction markets, compared to 35% for online sports betting and 42% for cryptocurrency.

This gap suggests that, while the industry is growing rapidly, it still hasn’t achieved the same cultural recognition or financial footprint as the established betting and digital asset sectors.  

Young Men More Likely to Use Prediction Markets

Although the poll found that familiarity with prediction markets was generally low among Americans, it was somewhat higher among young men, with almost one-third (29%) reporting familiarity with the platforms. 

Young men were also significantly more likely to use prediction markets than older groups. In the past six months, 26% of young men reported using at least one sports betting, daily fantasy, or prediction market platform, compared to just 14% of the general public. 

Motivations for using prediction markets were split between leisure and profit among the respondents: 

• Entertainment: 50% of users cited entertainment as their top reason for participating.
• Financial Gain: 41% reported using the platforms primarily to make money.

While most respondents view prediction markets as gambling, young men were slightly less likely to agree, with 47% of men in the 18-to-24-year-old cohort viewing event contracts as closer to gambling, while 25% viewed them as a “mix of both” gambling and investing. Overall, those in the 18-to-34 age bracket were less likely than any other age group to view event contracts as a type of gambling.

Americans Want Oversight, Not a Ban

As states like Arizona move to shut down or limit these platforms, many Americans would rather see regulation than outright bans, according to the poll. Most respondents would like to see prediction markets incorporated into existing frameworks and don’t think there’s a need to create entirely new ones. 

• Gambling Model: 59% favor regulation similar to online sports betting, including age limits of 21 and older and state-level rules.
• Financial Model: 52% support regulating them like financial trading, with an age limit of 18 and older and federal-level oversight.
• Prohibition: 25% of the total population believes it’s a good idea to make prediction markets illegal. 

The poll showed that most people weren’t confident that prediction markets could stop insider trading on their platforms: 39% said they were “not at all confident,” and 22% said they were “not too confident.” Only 2% described themselves as being very confident, and 7% somewhat confident, that the platforms could stop people from profiting unfairly from inside information. 

As for whether Americans believe prediction markets are good for society, only 4% answered yes, compared with 52% who said traditional stock market investing is a societal positive.