A Spanish soccer team competing in La Liga, the country’s top division, allegedly wagered $1 million against itself in a match this season at Kalshi.
A report on the financial news site Semafor said the unnamed club lost the match in question 1-0. They placed the bet at Kalshi through Game Point Capital, a company that helps sports organizations manage financial risks.
“We want to see how prediction markets would handle this, and it was a good test case — a large and binary outcome,” Game Point Capital CEO Will Hall said in an interview with Semafor.
The club faced the prospect of relegation to La Liga 2, the Spanish second division. If relegated, the team would face a significant loss in television revenue. To hedge against this, they allegedly placed a wager with Kalshi. Semafor’s report did not reveal the bet, but it seems likely it was on the team to be relegated.
What Club Was It?
The report did not disclose which team allegedly placed the bet. In the final game of the season, two teams lost matches 1-0: Sevilla and Osasuna. Sevilla were all but safe, sitting three points above the relegation zone.
Osasuna finished 17th, staying in the league only on goal difference. Had Girona beaten Elche, they would have been consigned to La Liga 2.
With growing noise around the story, Osasuna issued a club statement on Monday, noting, “Osasuna purchased insurance to cover potential financial consequences stemming from possible relegation, a common practice in professional sports, particularly soccer. The club secured a 1.2 million euro policy to guarantee compensation of 6 million euros in the event of relegation.”
“The coverage was purchased through Howden, an internationally renowned insurance company with a strong presence in the sports sector, which has worked with other LaLiga clubs for years.”
It said it informed La Liga and received approval for the policy. It attached documents as evidence.
Semafor claims that Susquehanna was on the other side of the trade and made more than $1 million. The company, which acts as a market maker for Kalshi, did not respond to the allegations.
Could Club Face Sanctions?
Kalshi’s market rules state that the following are prohibited from trading on sports matches:
- Current and former players, coaches, and staff of the league, association, or organization(s) governing the event
- Paid employees of the league and league participants
- Owners of teams and the league
- Household members and the immediate family of all above
The Semafor report alleges that the team’s owners initiated the trade, which would violate Kalshi’s rules. Spain also prohibits owners of sports clubs from gambling on matches.
The prohibition extends broadly to competitions in which the club participates, not just its own matches. The club would face fines from Spain’s gambling regulator as well as possible sanctions from La Liga and UEFA, Europe’s governing body for soccer.
Semafor’s report does not accuse the club of manipulating the match’s outcome. However, if they knowingly facilitated a wager on their own side to be relegated and the team subsequently lost, it would raise questions about whether they intentionally threw the match.
If match manipulation were a factor, the owners and the team would face more severe sanctions, including criminal prosecution. The club strongly denies it did anything other than purchase an insurance policy, which is standard practice.
Spain Blocks Kalshi
Not long after the alleged trade, on May 26, Spain announced that it had blocked both Kalshi and Polymarket.
The Ministry of Consumer Affairs issued an order restricting access to the platforms it says offer gambling services without a valid license.
When announcing the sanction against the companies, the Ministry said the operators “lack the technical and regulatory guarantees required in Spain, including identity verification systems, access control mechanisms for minors, and people self-excluded or prohibited from playing.”
It is unclear if the Ministry was aware of the allegations that a club wagered against itself at Kalshi.
La Liga Continues Polymarket Partnership
Despite Spain blocking the platform, La Liga continues to partner with Polymarket. The league signed a multi-year deal in April to make the company its official prediction market partner in the US and Canada.
In the announcement, La Liga said, “Through this partnership, La Liga and Polymarket will collaborate to establish a responsible and transparent framework that promotes innovative fan participation while upholding the highest standards of sporting integrity.“
Serie A in Italy signed a similar deal with the platform last month, even though it is also blocked in the country.
If proven true, a club owner wagering against its own team would be a significant scandal and make it highly unlikely that Spain or other countries that block prediction markets would relax their stance against the platforms.
Note: This story was updated to reflect Semafor’s corrected report that the team lost its final match of the season. A previous version mistakenly stated that they won the match in question. The story was also updated to include Osasuna’s club statement.
