The World Cup attracted record-breaking trading volumes at prediction markets. Millions of users downloaded the apps of Kalshi and Polymarket and traded billions of dollars during the 39-day tournament.
In an expanded 48-team format, analysts predicted the event would comfortably attract more than the $35 billion in wagers at the 2022 World Cup in Qatar.
The tournament was also the first time North America staged soccer’s showpiece event since the PASPA ruling in 2018 paved the way for legal sports betting across the US. And in states that have not yet legalized, prediction markets offered users the chance to wager on the tournament.
Kalshi Sees Over $33 Billion Traded
Kalshi won the battle for the most volume at the tournament. Ticker Tracker reported that $13.8 billion was traded on the platform’s World Cup markets. Parlays saw even higher volumes, with over $19.8 billion traded throughout the tournament.
It is important to note that not all of these parlays were purely World Cup wagers; users may have combined selections from other sports or events. Between the tournament kicking off on June 11 and the final on July 19, parlays accounted for 36.78% of all trades on Kalshi. Single World Cup markets accounted for 25.4%, more than all other sports (24.08%).
Volume per match grew throughout the tournament, increasing from just over $80 million in the group stages to $795 million in the final.
Volume Easy to Overestimate
The numbers reported by Ticket Tracker do not match those reported by Kalshi. The site shows that $1.9 billion was traded on the World Cup final. Ticker Tracker pointed out that this includes futures bets on the outright winner of the tournament, rather than purely trades on the Spain vs. Argentina match.
Kalshi has faced accusations of inflating volume in the past by double-counting certain markets. It is also important to note that volume is not the equivalent of betting handle at sportsbooks.
As Gaming America noted, at the start of the tournament, $123 million was traded on who would win the tournament. However, the majority of that volume came from market makers opposing bettors.
Haiti had the ninth highest volume, with over $4.5 million traded on the tournament debutants. That did not mean bettors wagered $4.5 million on the country to shock the world and lift the trophy. Contracts on Haiti traded at $0.01, so bettors had in fact only wagered $4,500 on the tiny island nation.
Of the $123 million in volume at the start of the tournament, users were actually only risking $5.4 million. If a sportsbook reported its betting handle, then it would have been this figure. While there are no figures immediately available, sportsbooks are estimated to have taken about $4 billion in wagers during the World Cup.
Polymarket Also Shows Record Volume During World Cup
The different ways prediction markets report volume compared to sportsbooks make comparisons tricky. The figures at Kalshi undoubtedly show big increases in trading during the World Cup, however.
Overall, it has been widely reported that Kalshi saw higher trading volumes than its rival platform, Polymarket. Polymarket’s international exchange set a new monthly record in June with an overall trading volume of $10.8 billion, while its regulated U.S. platform logged $3.5 billion in trading volume, nearly double May’s total.
Polymarket’s World Cup winner market shows users traded over $4 billion. Overall, the platform had around $20 billion in trading across all World Cup markets when combining the international and US exchanges.
Of the 193,000 accounts trading on the market, 66.7% lost money, with 43 accounts losing a combined total of $15 million. On the other side, 54 accounts won $22 million. Five accounts made profits of over $1 million each, as noted by DeFiOasis on X.
Over 3 Million Downloaded Kalshi App
Kalshi won the battle for most app downloads. CMO Alan Maman reported that the platform reached over 269,000 daily downloads during the tournament, far eclipsing other prediction markets or sportsbooks.
In total, the company said it added three million new users during the World Cup. The site sponsored Argentina and was promoted by Lionel Messi on the player’s Instagram account before the tournament.
It also signed a deal with ADIPredictStreet, the tournament’s official prediction market platform. That led to Kalshi advertising being prominently displayed on advertising hoardings during matches. These deals appear to have paid off, attracting millions of new users and billions of dollars in trading. We also noted that Kalshi had better odds than leading sportsbooks during the tournament.
It could be the last tournament in which users can trade so freely on Kalshi. Nevada and Michigan have already blocked the platform, and a ruling in Washington state could also see residents prohibited from trading on the site.
With little sporting action of note in the next month, the battle will be to maintain the legal status of prediction markets in as many states as possible ahead of the new football season.
