‘The Pulse’ on Prop Bets & Their Future in American Sports Betting

Editor’s note: CasinoBeats is introducing a recurring feature called “The Pulse” that analyzes the current state of a specific “beat” in the gaming industry. Our first installment focuses on the heightened scrutiny of prop bets after a spate of major sports-betting scandals.

The recent sports-betting scandals involving the NBA, NCAA, and MLB all trace back to one specific type of wager: the prop bet.

Prop bets come in many forms and are wagered across myriad sports. A prop bet is not tied to the actual outcome of a game. Wagering on some aspect of a player’s individual performance represents the purest form of prop betting, and it’s that type of bet that created recent problems for the NBA, NCAA, and MLB.

U.S. sports betting is at a crossroads, with several stakeholders fighting to ban prop bets, especially in college competition. The reality, though, is that offshore sportsbooks will still offer them.

It was offshore operators that introduced them to the marketplace several years before a Super Bowl prop on William “The Refrigerator” Perry to score a TD in 1986 catalyzed their popularity in the U.S.

Anti-Prop Bet Sentiment Grows

The NCAA has been most active in trying to rid the marketplace of prop bets on college sports. The recent NCAA Growth, Opportunities, Aspirations and Learning of Students in College (GOALS) study found that 46% of DI men’s basketball student-athletes received negative or threatening messages from individuals who had bet on their games. That’s up 10% from a similar study done last year.

NCAA President Charlie Baker renewed his effort to have college props removed in a recent letter to state gambling commissions. That came in the wake of the most recent college basketball scandal, which saw 26 people charged in a bribery and point-shaving scheme involving more than 39 players across 17 teams in dozens of games. 

Ohio Governor Mike DeWine has also been a leading proponent of banning prop bets, which his state successfully enacted for college sports in 2024. DeWine, who has publicly expressed regret over legalizing sports betting in Ohio, is now trying to limit prop bets across all major sports. That effort came on the heels of the spot-fixing scandal involving Cleveland Guardians pitchers Luis Ortiz and Emmanuel Clase.

DeWine successfully negotiated with MLB to limit the amount gamblers can wager on micro prop bets to $200. MLB Commissioner Rob Manfred commented, “Gov. DeWine really did a huge service, I think — to us, certainly, I can’t speak for any of the other sports — in terms of kind of bringing forward the need to do something in this area.”

NBA Commissioner Adam Silver said that “more regulation” of sports betting is needed to protect the integrity of his game. He noted that the NBA worked with its sportsbook partners to restrict certain prop bets last year. In 2024, those partners agreed to remove prop bets for players on two-way deals or 10-day contracts, but nothing has come of the more recent push to eliminate certain prop bets.

The NBA was rocked by its own betting scandal last October. Terry Rozier, Chauncey Billups, and Damon Jones were the biggest names to be indicted. All three have pleaded not guilty and now await court dates.

Rozier is alleged to have manipulated his performance for the “under” market on his rebounds, exiting a 2023 game after just 10 minutes with a purported foot injury. Billups and Jones allegedly fed inside information on player availability to bettors and took part in rigged poker games run by New York mafia crime families.

Blanket Ban on Prop Bets Unlikely

Looking ahead, it’s hard to envision a scenario in which prop bets are banned altogether. DraftKings CEO Jason Robins called that “crazy” and “absolutely not the right answer” last week. Like many, Robins believes that would push bettors to unregulated offshore operators. He advocates for tightening “guardrails around the riskiest bet types, rather than wiping out props altogether.”

Many argue that the legal framework in place increases the chance that suspicious betting patterns will be uncovered. Others maintain that the regulated market’s seemingly endless stream of prop bets is the source of corruption.

“The truth is somewhere in between,” gambling industry analyst and consultant Dustin Gouker told CasinoBeats. “The regulated sports betting market does uncover this stuff. (The NBA betting scandal) happened in the regulated market, it was flagged, it was caught. That’s true.

“It can also be true that the proliferation of legal sports betting has created more opportunity to bet, more props. So I think there is a middle ground between those two takes.”

Not everyone believes that regulated sports betting leads to more scandals being detected. Declan Hill, an associate professor at the University of New Haven and longtime investigator of sports corruption, firmly believes otherwise.

“They’re still missing most of the stuff,” Hill said. “Those monitoring the betting patterns help some of the time, but they really only catch the stupid fixes.”

What to Watch Next

Don’t anticipate wholesale changes to America’s prop betting market anytime soon.

These types of bets are an integral part of same-game parlays, which are high-margin products for commercial sportsbooks. As one of the few states that breaks down revenue for parlays, Maryland reported $1,586,351,425 in parlay/combinations wagered in January alone.

That accounted for 38.2% of the state’s total betting handle for the month. Parlays also had the highest hold percentage of any bet at 21%, translating to $332,428,340 for Maryland sportsbooks in January.

In our estimation, the “under” markets for individual players are the prop bets most likely to be affected, especially in college competitions. The latest college basketball scandal revealed why small schools are such easy prey. There was also a sizable number of “under” bets on the first half of recent college games.

It’s easier to envision restrictions on these riskier bets than sweeping changes in the near future. Will the NCAA’s continued vigilance in fighting against these “high-risk” bets pay off?

Only time, of course, will tell.