Ireland’s Finance Minister Simon Harris said he has asked officials to “do a deep dive analysis” into suspicious trading on election markets at Polymarket.
Speaking at the Banking and Payments Federation conference in Dublin on Tuesday, Harris said prediction markets have become “a kind of Wild West where people are placing bets in the form of cryptocurrency in a secretive, murky and unregulated manner.”
Over $1 million has been traded on the Dublin by-election, which is due to take place on Friday, May 22. Harris raised concerns about the amount of money being wagered.
“One does have to ask themselves, why are so many people from potentially outside our jurisdiction interested in using Polymarket in relation to the Dublin Central by-election?” Harris said, in comments reported by the Belfast Telegraph.
Most Money Traded On Alleged Crime Boss
Of the total $1,142,177 that has been traded on the by-election, $525,389 has been on Gerry ‘The Monk’ Hutch, an alleged crime boss.
Hutch this week denied allegations of money laundering. He told The Sun, “The Gardai (Irish police) came over to Spain and raided my house and took all my paperwork and went back to Spain and told the Spanish that I’m money laundering.”
“It’s bulls**t. The Spanish are just being misled by the Gardai and I’m not involved in crime. I have been in me past, but I’m not involved in crime.”
Hutch is alleged to be the head of a crime family that led two of Ireland’s biggest armed robberies in 1987 and 1995. The two heists reportedly earned the gang £4.7 million ($6.3 million).
Hutch also stood trial for the murder of David Byrne in 2016. The killing was said to be revenge for the murder of Hutch’s nephew, Gary Hutch, in a gang feud.
Hutch was extradited from Spain to Ireland in 2021 and kept in custody until he was eventually found not guilty in April 2023. He said his criminal past stopped when he got out of prison.
Gambling and Potential Money Laundering Under Scrutiny
Election betting is legal in Ireland, although Polymarket is not a licensed gambling company. Harris said he believes that wagering on the platform is gambling, and a conversation with the country’s gambling regulator is important.
He also warned of “the potential concern that this is a vehicle that could be used in terms of money laundering”.
He did not claim that any candidates in the election are suspected of any wrongdoing, but said he could not rule out “in a broad sense, the idea of activity that may not be kosher”. He added that he does not have any evidence of this.
Other countries have blocked Polymarket due to its election wagering. The Netherlands blocked and fined the company earlier this year. In total, 33 countries are listed as blocked on Polymarket’s site, including the UK, but not Ireland.
Polymarket Launches Prediction Markets On Private Companies
In another move that could lead to suspicious wagering activity, Polymarket announced it will launch markets on the performance of private companies.
“These new offerings give individuals exposure to some of the most sought-after private companies for the first time, while providing a new real-time signal for institutional investors on how private markets are unfolding,” the company said in a press release on Tuesday.
Nasdaq Private Market, a provider of liquidity and investment infrastructure for the private market, will serve as the resolution data provider for the markets.
Shayne Coplan, Founder and CEO of Polymarket, did not seem concerned that insiders could use the markets to profit from confidential information.
“For the first time, anyone can engage with the outcomes driving value at the world’s most consequential private companies,” he stated.
Coplan has previously said he believes insider trading on markets is cool.
“I think what’s cool about Polymarket is that it creates this financial incentive for people to go and divulge the information to the market and the market to change, and all of a sudden it’s trading at 95 cents,” he said in an interview in November.
Polymarket declined to comment on the investigation of suspicious betting on the Irish by-election.
