Arsenal and PSG will contest the UEFA Champions League final this weekend, the showpiece event in European soccer. Our betting preview breaks down the odds and offers some tips ahead of the match.
PSG are the defending champions after beating Inter Milan comprehensively 5-0 in last year’s final. Arsenal are competing in their first final since 2006, when they lost out to Barcelona.
The London club has already sealed the Premier League title, winning the English league for the first time since 2004. Having broken that long run, they will be more confident of doubling up this weekend. Arsenal has never lifted the coveted UCL trophy; their only European success was the now-defunct Cup Winners’ Cup in 1994.
Who Are The Bookies Favoring?
PSG are the favorites to win their second successive title at odds of around -145. Arsenal are available at around +210. In its history as the UCL, only Real Madrid has managed to defend the trophy, winning three in a row between 2016 and 2018.
PSG beat Arsenal in both legs of the semi-final on their way to the title last season, but Arsenal have found an extra gear this season and look a tougher proposition.
The French club is +130 to win over 90 minutes, which looks a better bet than the -145 on them to lift the trophy. There has not been a tie in the final in the last nine seasons, but we are not convinced that there is much difference between the teams, so we will avoid the moneyline.
Back Against Goals
A better bet looks to go against goals. PSG dazzled in last year’s final, crushing Inter Milan by a record-breaking 5-0. Usually, however, finals are tight affairs, and this Arsenal side has built success on a solid backline.
With David Raya in goal, Arsenal has kept the most clean sheets in the EPL for the last three seasons, including 19 in their title-winning run this year.
PSG has also not been as prolific this term. They romped to the French title last year while scoring 92 goals, but only managed 78 this season. Ousmane Dembele won the Ballon d’Or last year and finished as the team’s top scorer with 35 across all competitions. This year, however, he has just 18.
Under 2.5 goals could be the play at odds of -125. That would have landed in three of Arenal’s last four matches, likewise for PSG. In fact, only the dead rubbers in the final game of the season had more goals, and only just with 2-1 scorelines apiece.
In the last eight seasons, aside from last year’s anomaly, only one other final had more than 2.5 goals. That needed a few goalkeeping howlers from Liverpool keeper Loris Karius to give Real Madrid a 3-1 win over Liverpool in 2018.
Best Bet: Under 2.5 Goals -125 (DraftKings)
Goalscorer Odds
Arsenal has a few dangermen in the box, with Victor Gyokeres leading the scoring charts. The Swede is +700 to open the scoring, and +260 to net at any time.
However, he may not even start the match as Kai Havertz has often been preferred since his return from injury. Havertz scored the winner in the UCL final for Chelsea in 2021 and is probably a better pick than Gyokeres at odds of +800 to score first and +300 anytime.
Expecting a tight affair, it could come down to set pieces to break the deadlock between the two sides. Arsenal scored 19 goals from corners this campaign, the most in a single Premier League season.
Arsenal opened the scoring from a set piece when they were last in the final back in 2006. Sol Campbell scored that time, and we are looking at defenders for value again this time. Dutch defender Jurrien Timber netted three times this season, but he faces a race for fitness to make the final.
Brazilian defender Gabriel has arguably been Arsenal’s best player over the last few seasons. He is dominant in the air in both boxes and offers a threat at set pieces. Like Timber, he also scored three times in the league, as well as once in the UCL.
At odds of +3000 to get the first goal, he could be a worthy long shot to power Arsenal in front, or +1700 to score anytime.
Best Bet: Gabriel To Score First +3000 (DraftKings)
Arsenal Will Need To Get Physical
Tied into our play on Arsenal to score from a set piece, we expect PSG to dominate the ball. The French club has averaged 63.4% possession in the UCL this season, considerably more than Arsenal at 52.6%.
Arsenal will have to stick their foot in to win the ball back, so backing key defensive figures to make decisive tackles could be smart.
Declan Rice is Arsenal’s midfield general and has averaged 1.83 tackles per match this season. In most of those matches, Arsenal has had the upper hand, so we would expect the England midfielder to make at least three tackles against PSG, which is priced at +155.
Best Bet: Declan Rice +3 tackles +155 (DraftKings)
After the match, attention will all turn to the World Cup. Check back for more previews as the tournament nears kick-off on June 11.
