National teams have assembled and are playing pre-tournament friendlies as the big kick-off of the World Cup moves nearer. With 48 teams, the tournament will be the biggest ever. Our preview breaks down the best bets ahead of the competition, which comes to the US for the first time since sports betting was broadly legalized.
Given that many Americans can legally gamble on the tournament, it is expected to generate a record betting handle, exceeding the $35 billion wagered on Qatar 2022.
In an expanded format, there will be 104 matches, up from 64 at the last World Cup. Rather than individual matches, our preview focuses on futures bets.
Outright Winner
First, looking at the outright winner market, European sides head the betting. Spain (+475) is the marginal favorite ahead of France (+500) and England (+650). All three have strong squads, and a case could be made for any of the countries to lift the trophy.
Spain is the European champion, defeating both France and England on their way to glory in 2024. They also have a fairly comfortable group, facing off against Saudi Arabia, Cape Verde, and Uruguay. They should grow into the tournament and will no doubt be there in the latter stages. The price is too short for us, though, so we’re looking elsewhere for a value pick.
Argentina (+1000) is the defending champion, and Lionel Messi will be competing in what is surely his last tournament at the age of 38. He is expected to recover in time to feature in the first match against Algeria. Julian Alvarez will also offer a real threat in front of goal.
What really appeals is Argentina’s solid backline. Emi Martinez was a star at the last tournament and is perhaps the best goalkeeper in the world. Lisandro Martinez and Cristian Romero offer grit in defense, while Enzo Fernandez will be the lynchpin again in midfield. The squad is largely unchanged, and after tasting success in 2022, will be confident they can beat anyone.
South American sides have usually dominated when the World Cup is held outside Europe. In 11 tournaments, they have won the trophy 9 times. Argentina looks like a better bet than Brazil (+850) to continue that trend. They finished ten points ahead of their South American rivals in qualifying, beating them 4-1 in the process. Despite that, bookies have the defending champions at a higher price.
Best Bet: Argentina (+1000 FanDuel)
Hosts To Thrive In Front Of Home Crowds
The tournament is shared across Canada, the US, and Mexico. All three hosts benefit from being top seeds in their groups, meaning they avoid the European and South American heavyweights.
In 20 World Cups, the host nation has finished top of its group 14 times. In this expanded format, it has never been easier, as the big nations are split across 12 groups.
Mexico (-125) and the US (+140) are favorites to top their sections, while Canada (+200) is behind Switzerland (-125) to triumph in Group B. Switzerland was not overly impressive in qualifying, tying away matches with Kosovo and Slovenia.
As mentioned, European sides generally struggle outside the continent, and we would be willing to take the risk that home advantage can get Canada to the top of their group. Coach Jesse Marsch said this is the strongest squad the country has ever assembled. Alphonso Davies is expected to be fit at the very least for the game against Switzerland, which could be a difference maker.
Best Bet: USA, Canada, and Mexico To Win Groups (+1274 DraftKings)
Top Goalscorer
Kylian Mbappe (+600) and Harry Kane (+700) head the betting to be the top scorer at the tournament. But again, we’re looking for a better value price than the favorites.
With additional matches, teams can rack up goals early, and Germany has a favorable group alongside debutants Curaçao, Ecuador, and the Ivory Coast.
Kai Havertz scored the opener in the Champions League final for Arsenal, and we regret not going all out for our prediction on him to score first in that game. He looks good value at +5000 to finish top of the charts.
Havertz missed most of the season through injury but returned strongly at the end of the campaign and should be fresher than most going into the tournament. He will lead the line for Germany, and with Jamal Musiala and Florian Wirtz supplying the forward, he should get plenty of chances.
The 26-year-old netted twice at the last World Cup and twice at Euro 2024, so he has a scoring pedigree at major tournaments. At big odds, he stands out as a starting forward for a leading nation to grab the golden boot.
Best Bet: Kai Havertz To Be Top Goalscorer (+5000 DraftKings)
As the tournament kicks off, look out for more tips in individual matches.
