George Santos is reportedly under investigation for trading on whether he would attend the State of the Union address in February at Kalshi. The former Republican Congressman is alleged to have lied that he would attend the event before trading on the market.
The State of the Union address took place on February 24. Prediction market platforms Kalshi and Polymarket both had markets on who would attend.
Did Santos Intentionally Dupe Traders?
On February 23, Santos posted on X that he would be in the gallery for the address. He responded to claims that he was barred from attending, stating, “I’m going to be there for the State of the Union in the gallery, guys, just chill, trolls, chill.”
NPR reported that three people with direct knowledge of his trades said he had wagered on himself not attending the event at Kalshi.
The release of the video saying he would be there sent his chances of attending up to 76% at Kalshi. Between his video on February 23 and the event on February 24, over $9.3 million was traded on the market. More money was on Santos than on any other person, with a total of over $3 million going on the 37-year-old.
On Polymarket, his chances rose to 78.5%. Almost $150,000 was traded on Santos at Polymarket, more than anyone except Nick Shirley. The YouTuber accounted for the majority of the trading, with $6.6 million of the total $7.8 million.
Santos confirmed in another post on X the following day that he was not at the event. At that time, some users accused him of trading on Polymarket and Kalshi.
Others sent disgruntled replies claiming he had duped them into wagering in the market. In a post on X yesterday, Santos stated, “Leaking is the new currency of society. The worst part is, it’s not even true 99% of the time. I freaking hate people and their need for relevance on the backs of others.”
He was responding to claims that people close to President Donald Trump are leaking his private phone calls to the media. His X account also frequently posts screenshots of markets at Polymarket.
Santos Refuses to Deny Trading
In comments to NPR, Santos neither confirmed nor denied having a Kalshi account or trading on his attendance at the State of the Union.
“I’m not saying yes, I’m not saying no,” he said when asked if he used the platform.
He said he was unaware of any investigation into his trading activity. Kalshi did not respond to confirm that it is reviewing his account or has referred the case to authorities.
NPR, however, said the company has requested an interview with Santos, but he has dodged those requests.
After the article was published, Santos took to X again to declare that he does not respond to “rag reporting.” He did not respond to CasinoBeats when contacted for comment.
Trump Released Santos After Imprisonment
Santos would still be in federal prison if his sentence had not been commuted by Trump. He pleaded guilty to identity theft and wire fraud in August 2024 and was sentenced to 87 months in prison in April 2025, which he began serving that July.
Trump, however, ordered his release in October. In a post on Truth Social, he stated, “George has been in solitary confinement for long stretches of time and, by all accounts, has been horribly mistreated. Therefore, I just signed a Commutation, releasing George Santos from prison, IMMEDIATELY. Good luck George, have a great life!”
If found guilty of trading on the markets at Kalshi and Polymarket, he could face time behind bars again. A Google employee was indicted last week on charges of commodities fraud, wire fraud, and money laundering. He allegedly used confidential company information to win over $1 million by trading on who would appear in the most-searched people of the year list.
Commodities fraud carries a maximum prison sentence of 10 years, while wire fraud and money laundering carry potential sentences of up to 20 years.
Kalshi Continues Offering Santos Markets
Despite reportedly suspending Santos’ account after the State of the Union address in February, Kalshi continued to offer markets related to the disgraced Representative.
Last month, it allowed users to trade on what Santos would say during a NewsMax interview. Almost $90,000 was traded on the market.
Several lawmakers have proposed bans on these kinds of markets that can be manipulated by one person.
Minnesota passed a ban on mention markets, along with sports, and several other markets. In response, the CFTC filed a lawsuit against the state, taking particular exception to Minnesota’s prohibition of weather-related markets.
The Santos scandal may lead to further calls to restrict prediction markets. Trump, however, as he did with Santos, has publicly supported the CFTC and the industry as a whole.
