Social media influencers paid by Kalshi and Polymarket pushed hard on Spencer Pratt to win the Los Angeles mayoral election. And huge amounts of money have been traded on the TV personality, but it looks now like he will lose out to Nithya Raman in the race for second place.
Pratt Dominates Betting
Kalshi’s market on the winner has seen over $78 million traded. Pratt peaked at a 26.3% chance last week and is now given just over 1%. Of that, around 75% was on Pratt.
The platform also has a variety of other markets related to the race, including the percentage of the vote that Pratt would take, which saw over $8 million in trading volume.
At Polymarket, over 10 times as much was traded on Pratt (around $5.7 million) as on Karen Bass (around $529,000), who led the voting.
Prediction Markets Invest in Influencers
Pratt’s campaign appears to have resonated strongly with prediction market users. In part, because paid influencers have promoted him across social media.
Kalshi and Polymarket have spent significant sums recruiting influencers to post links to markets across the internet.
Politico reported Polymarket splurged at least $350,000 between January 2025 and February 2026. And as the company relaunches in the US, that appears to have ramped up.
Kalshi Asks Promoters to Remove Posts
As Pratt’s chances appeared to wane, many have questioned the results, including President Donald Trump. Trump posted on Truth Social that the election was “crooked.”
Matt Von Swol and Gunther Eagleman, both paid to promote Kalshi online, posted doubts over the election’s results alongside Kalshi’s markets.
“Is CA cheating to get Spencer Pratt out?” Eagleman wrote. He follows up with another post, including Kalshi’s market, writing, “They’re stealing it, aren’t they?”
Von Swol, meanwhile, wrote, “I need someone to explain to me how EVERY SINGLE VOTE that comes in “late” to California …nearly 100% of them…Go to ANYONE, but Spencer Pratt. How the hell does that happen? Isn’t that LITERALLY impossible?!!!!”
Kalshi, however, asked for the posts to be removed. Dani Lever, a Kalshi spokesperson, told Semafor, “We’ve asked these to be taken down, as they violate our affiliate marketing policies.”
Both continue to post, questioning the results, just not referencing Kalshi’s odds on the result.
Polymarket Promoters Keep Posting
Paid Polymarket promoters continued to post links to the platform along with criticisms of the vote. The platform does not appear to have raised any objections.
The company did split with one influencer last week, severing ties with George Santos amid accusations he used Kalshi to trade on himself attending the State of the Union address.
With election betting now commonplace, we may expect to see more campaigns backed by prediction markets. The danger may be that the more people wager on the outcome, the more anger we see when the results go against bettors.
