I started running an experiment during this World Cup to see whether the leading AI chatbots, ChatGPT and Gemini, could pick sustained winning bets during the tournament.
I started on Day 2, and after three picks each, they have just one winner between them. I have also been adding picks each day to see how a flawed human can compete with the technology.
I was able to reverse my opening two losses after predicting Ivory Coast would triumph over Ecuador on Sunday. That leaves me with a profit of $2.50 overall. Gemini is down $30 after three losing bets, while ChatGPT is minus $8 after its last pick (a Netherlands draw no bet against Japan) returned its $10 stake.
The rules of the competition are simple. I ask the bots to recommend a bet for that day’s World Cup action. I take their first pick and simulate a $10 bet on the selection.
I previously ran an experiment over 10 days where the bots had free choice of any sport. Gemini triumphed there, generating $32.70 in profit from $100 staked. ChatGPT fared considerably worse, losing $35.69.
For today’s picks, I will share a bit of insight into the thought process behind each selection. I asked the bots to analyze their bets so far and come up with a new recommendation.
ChatGPT
Day 2 Pick: Canada to Defeat Bosnia and Herzegovina (-120) LOST -$10
Day 3 Pick: Scotland Draw No Bet vs Haiti (-500) WON +$2
Day 4 Pick: Netherlands Draw No Bet vs Japan (-195) NO BET $0
Analysis:
The biggest takeaway is that this tournament has produced more draws than expected among reasonably matched teams. Canada-Bosnia, Qatar-Switzerland, Brazil-Morocco, and Netherlands-Japan all finished level. Rather than chasing favorites on the moneyline, the better strategy has been:
- Avoid laying heavy prices.
- Prefer Draw No Bet when the talent gap isn’t enormous.
- Look for totals and matchup-specific angles instead of simply backing the bigger name.
Day 5 Pick: Iran Draw No Bet vs New Zealand (-285)
Iran is a slight favorite, but not by much, which means you’re not paying a huge premium. This is the type of World Cup opener where caution tends to dominate, making outright moneylines risky. Iran has significantly more World Cup experience than New Zealand and possesses proven international attackers such as Mehdi Taremi. Draw No Bet protects against the exact outcome that has repeatedly hurt bettors in this tournament.
Gemini
Day 2 Pick: Canada to Defeat Bosnia and Herzegovina (-120) LOST -$10
Day 3 Pick: Switzerland to Win (vs. Qatar) & Brazil Over 1.5 Team Goals (vs. Morocco) (+129) LOST -$10
Day 4 Pick: Netherlands vs. Japan — Under 2.5 Total Goals (-130) LOST -$10
Analysis:
An honest look at our World Cup trajectory reveals that a clear tactical pivot is required. We started with high hopes on home-nation energy and individual team goals, but the opening group fixtures have proven to be an incredibly tight, low-scoring battles.
Through four days of tournament play, favorites are struggling to break down disciplined, deep-lying defensive blocks (e.g., Brazil 1-1 Morocco, Switzerland 1-1 Qatar). In high-stakes opening games, teams prioritize keeping a clean sheet over attacking expansion.
Day 5 Pick: Spain -1.5 Asian Handicap (vs. Cabo Verde) & Iran vs. New Zealand Under 2.5 Goals (-109)
While we have seen surprises, Spain vs. Cabo Verde is a massive structural mismatch. Cabo Verde is making its historic World Cup debut against the reigning European Champions. Unlike traditional heavyweights who lean on aging stars, Luis de la Fuente’s squad relies on high-velocity direct wingers (like Lamine Yamal) and intense counter-pressing. Cabo Verde will struggle heavily to transition out of their own half under that pressure. A -1.5 Handicap simply requires Spain to win by two clear goals (e.g., 2-0 or 3-0), protecting us from standard 1-0 stagnation while keeping a realistic baseline.
The late-night matchup between Iran and New Zealand is a dream fixture for an under-bettor. Iran historically built their entire international identity on a suffocating low block and disciplined defensive structures. New Zealand enters this tournament with a similarly pragmatic approach, prioritizing aerial dominance and structured mid-blocks. Neither side possesses the fluid, creative midfield passing necessary to easily unlock a packed box, pointing directly to a tight 1-0 grind or a scoreless stalemate.
By moving our risk into Spain’s sheer talent margin and combining it with a classic low-scoring clash between Iran and New Zealand, we create a highly balanced, smart double designed to cut through opening-round cageyness.
My Picks
Day 2 Pick: Christian Pulisic to score anytime vs. Paraguay (+245) LOST -$10
Day 3 Pick: Lawrence Shankland to score anytime vs. Haiti (+130) LOST -$10
Day 4 Pick: Ivory Coast to beat Ecuador (+225) WON +$22.50
Analysis
I backed goalscorers in the first two matches, expecting dominant performances from the US and Scotland. I thought Pulisic and Shankland would take penalties, but neither team was awarded one. Shankland had been in fine scoring form, but didn’t get many chances against a better-than-expected Haiti side. Ivory Coast saved me with a last-minute goal, sealing victory for the Africans on Sunday. In truth, it was fortunate to beat a decent Ecuador side in a game that could easily have gone either way. Focusing on bets with a decent return looks like a good strategy rather than picking short-priced favorites. Despite a losing record, I am overall in profit. We’ll see how long that lasts.
Day 5 Pick: Saudi Arabia or tie vs Uruguay (+165)
Uruguay looks a short price to me. The team is not what it used to be. In previous years, they had superstar strikers in the form of Edinson Cavani and Luis Suarez. Darwin Nunez will lead the line this time, but he has failed to live up to his early promise. He now plies his trade in the Saudi league but was left out of Al Hilal’s Pro League squad after Karim Benzema arrived in February. Coming into the tournament, Uruguay has not won any of its last four matches. Granted, some were against formidable opposition, and they managed a draw with England thanks to a last-minute penalty, but a 5-1 loss to the US shows the team has several weaknesses. Their last victory came in a friendly against Uzbekistan in October last year in a narrow 2-1 win. The team also has injury concerns going into the match, mainly with Barcelona’s Ronald Araujo, but Giorgian de Arrascaeta, Jose Gimenez, Matias Vina, and Sebastian Caceres are also doubtful.
Saudi Arabia shocked the world by beating Argentina in its opener at the last World Cup, and the team can benefit from the Saudi Pro League’s rising prominence. Its players all compete domestically, with Salem Al-Dawsari still the star man. Also, of Al Hilal, he netted more times than Nunez (10) this past season. He also scored in a 3-0 win over Puerto Rico in the warm-up to the tournament, before a respectable 0-0 draw with Senegal. Bold bettors can back them at +700 to win, but I will go with the double chance that they either win or tie at +165.
