Robert Walker has more than four decades of experience in the sports betting industry, and as such, he’s the perfect source to consult on the evolution of bookmaking in the modern era.
Walker started his career with Boyd Gaming in 1986 and ran operations for several other shops, including The Stardust and MGM Mirage.
“Back when we were doing it, people thought that it was a science and an art,” Walker told CasinoBeats in an exclusive interview. “I said fine because as long as they don’t know what you do, the executives, then they’re always gonna pay you a lot of money. If they actually knew what we did, they may not pay us as much, right? Because we’re basically just trying to stay on the right number.”
He added, “But when they think it’s a science and an art, then you’re like, ‘OK, yeah. I’m an artist here.'”
Fast forward to today. Walker, Farrell Drodz, and Sports Betting Hall of Fame member Vic Salerno are the principals behind A1 Risk Management Solutions (ARMS). The company specializes in risk mitigation, platform management, and trading solutions for retail sportsbooks.
Bookmaking Back in the Day
Walker began in the pre-Internet era when information was difficult to obtain, and the scope of available markets looked entirely different.
“Injuries were out there, but you just couldn’t get any information back then,” he said. “Everybody booked the Sweet 16, but nobody was booking the entire tournament. So, we did that, and that was really hard.
“We really didn’t refer to ourselves as bookmakers back then. We were directors of operations or sports book operations.”
In Walker’s estimation, the essence of bookmaking can be distilled into one sentence that stands the test of time in any era.
“The key to bookmaking is really simple: It just comes down to one thing, and that’s never give away value,” he said.
The term positive EV wasn’t used back then, but Walker described it as being on the right number.
“What does that mean, being on the right number?” he said. “It’s just being on or close to a consensus number with the knowledge that most of your public’s gonna bet the favorite and the over, and those kinds of things. So, inherently, if you know you’re debating between 6.5 and 6, you’re gonna open up 6.5 almost always.”
He added, “I can’t speak for everybody, but I based our limits on how much I could take from a sharp player that wouldn’t dictate my fate on that game.”
Walker entered the industry around the same time that Salerno helped revolutionize it by creating Computerized Bookmaking Systems (CBS). It allowed sportsbooks to transition from paper-based operations to the digital realm.
When Walker joined The Stardust in 1991, it had already established itself as the market maker in Las Vegas. Opening lines originated there, and Walker explained the process of setting odds in those days.
Walker started by using lines from the legendary “Roxy” Roxborough of Las Vegas Sports Consultants, the oddsmaking business that launched in the 1980s, and noted handicapper Kenny White. That was only part of the process.
“I ultimately used seven lines, including a line I made on every sport, and spoiler alert, mine was by far the worst of the numbers,” Walker said. “When we hit the median, we basically use the median, but we didn’t wanna stray too far off of Roxy because that was kind of the central number. We didn’t use an average because we knew one bad number could skew it. So, that’s how we made the lines for years.”
Computers Change the Game in Mid-’90s
The industry underwent a seismic shift after the advent of the Internet and widespread usage of computers. Walker recalls this taking firmly hold and changing the game in the mid-’90s.
He moved to the MGM Mirage in 1996, and shortly after, the operation utilized odds from Don Best. The platform allowed Walker to see what other books were offering in real-time. The odds at offshore books were also readily available by then.
“When we could see the offshore lines from Pinnacle and 5 Dimes, and whoever else was out there, I exclusively used offshore lines,” Walker said. “I didn’t care what Nevada books were at because I didn’t know how they booked, or if they were catering to sharp players or their large casino players. So, I never really cared what the Nevada numbers were.
“Basically, that relegated The Stardust to being meaningless as far as the opening line was concerned. You could put your numbers up later. If you saw everybody’s at 3, you’re not gonna open 4.”
Automation Rules the Modern Era of Bookmaking
Perhaps there was never a day when bookmaking was an art, but if there was, that era is long gone.
Without denigrating anyone in the younger generation of bookmakers, Walker used “night and day” to describe the difference between now and then. That’s just the technical reality, and not a knock on anyone.
“They’re not growing up in the environment that we did,” Walker said. “They’re basically just babysitting the data feeds right now, and that’s really all they have to do. Make sure that the data feed’s on, make sure that your number is accurate, and if it’s not, why? It’s almost always gonna be a data feed issue or a platform issue.”
Walker is a big proponent of AI and current technologies that allow for massive prop markets.
“We couldn’t book all these props because we didn’t have the automation that we needed to move forward,” he said. “And that’s really how it’s changed. I’m a huge AI guy, and I’m a huge fan of the data feeds. There are some really great data feeds out there where you can make your own consensus lines for everything.”
There is one shared reality for bookmakers today and those of yesteryear. If someone is beating you consistently, it’s imperative to find out why.
“Are the lines you’re using bad?” Walker said. “Are they slow? When you have an algorithm, it sometimes takes a second to kick in because it’s slow. It sees the game went (off) 7, now it has to change all the downline numbers, right? The first half, the money line, the first quarter, and all the individual props that are associated with that.”
The acceleration of the industry spanning Walker’s four decades of involvement is remarkable.
“We all want machine learning and AI,” he said. “When I talk about AI, I’m talking about being able to identify the best books for certain numbers. What books are maybe the best in hockey, or what books are the best, or move the fastest, or have the best props, or who has the best player props consistently?”
In this era, the best of everything is seemingly available.
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